Closed frnsys closed 2 years ago
I just had a session that went from about 40 to > 200 Gt within a year or two. Main factor is a jump in electricity demand:
Analyzing the snapshots of that session:
{'One-Child Policy', 'Wood Skyscrapers', 'Universal Abortions & Contraceptives', 'Marine Protected Areas'}
{'Floating Wind Turbines', 'Perennial Cereals', 'Indigenous Land Management', 'Food Waste Campaign', 'Green Hydrogen', 'Battery Storage Network'}
Then main process differences are: Before:
[('Floating Wind Turbines', 0), ('Nuclear Power', 2), ('Coal', 2), ('Solar PV', 4), ('Concentrated Solar Power', 0), ('Petroleum', 11), ('Hydropower', 3), ('Cellular Meat', 0), ('Blue Hydrogen', 0), ('Terrestrial Wind Power', 3), ('Petroleum Power Gen', 1), ('Organic Crop Ag', 0), ('Green Hydrogen', 0), ('Industrial Livestock Ag', 20), ('Grey Hydrogen', 0), ('Algae Biofuels', 0), ('Smallholder Farms', 6), ('Natural Gas Power Gen', 5), ('Nuclear Fusion', 0), ('BECCS', 0), ('Industrial Crop Ag', 14), ('Thorium Nuclear Power', 0), ('Regenerative Ag (Livestock)', 0), ('Biofuels', 3), ('Coal Power Generation', 4), ('Organic Livestock Ag', 0), ('Vertical Farming', 0), ('Natural Gas', 4), ('Breeder Nuclear Power', 0), ('Regenerative Ag (Crops)', 0)]
After:
[('Floating Wind Turbines', 0), ('Nuclear Power', 2), ('Coal', 2), ('Solar PV', 5), ('Concentrated Solar Power', 0), ('Petroleum', 6), ('Hydropower', 3), ('Cellular Meat', 0), ('Blue Hydrogen', 0), ('Terrestrial Wind Power', 4), ('Petroleum Power Gen', 1), ('Organic Crop Ag', 0), ('Green Hydrogen', 5), ('Industrial Livestock Ag', 20), ('Grey Hydrogen', 0), ('Algae Biofuels', 0), ('Smallholder Farms', 11), ('Natural Gas Power Gen', 5), ('Nuclear Fusion', 0), ('BECCS', 0), ('Industrial Crop Ag', 9), ('Thorium Nuclear Power', 0), ('Regenerative Ag (Livestock)', 0), ('Biofuels', 3), ('Coal Power Generation', 0), ('Organic Livestock Ag', 0), ('Vertical Farming', 0), ('Natural Gas', 4), ('Breeder Nuclear Power', 0), ('Regenerative Ag (Crops)', 0)]
I think it's the green hydrogen that's responsible for the change (it goes from 0% to 5*5=25% of all fuel production)
Right now in the editor we have something like 45kWh electricity input for 1kWh of hydrogen fuel so it's incredibly inefficient. I need to see what the expected EROI is for the different hydrogen fuel technologies and see if it's lower than that.
Otherwise what do we do in that scenario? Do we try to stop the player or just let them spike electricity and emissions? That might be ok as long as it's clear why it happened, but then we need to figure out how to present that.
This bug also came up from this way (from Son La):
This lowers emissions to ~20 by the end of the first cycle (2025) and then in the middle of the second cycle then emissions spike.
I've narrowed it down to Vertical Farming as the issue...to reproduce:
Checked my math and the value that I entered for vertical farm energy usage (1.83kWh/kcal) is correct. So this is, as far as I can tell, working as expected.
So the problem is more about figuring how to handle these cases--do we warn the player or something?
We decided to warn the player when something like this is about to happen, see 95bff21902b11b30da3dd304015eca0defdce3d9 and 58c641ca97efdbc695a7df79305781c2219b4a1d