Frost bolt critical hit chance into frozen target is calculated WRONG

[dickonhard]

Description: The frost bolt (https://cata-twinhead.twinstar.cz/?spell=116 ) crit chance into FROZEN target is calculated wrong. Glyph of frost bolt(https://cata-twinhead.twinstar.cz/?item=42742 ) Shatter talent multiplies the crit chance of spells being hit on frozen targets by 3(https://cata-twinhead.twinstar.cz/?spell=12982 ) So basically how its crit chance should be calculated is this: basic crit chance(24.27% of mine. https://imgur.com/a/PKKk6bq ) adds up to 5% crit chance from Glyph of frost bolt, and then the sum must be multiplied by 3 (shatter talent) which equal 87.81% (24.27+5)x3=87.81% and this must be estimated crit chance of frost bolt. What we have instead: Basic crit chance(24.27%) is multiplied by 3 (equals 72.81%) and THEN added up the 5% crit chance from glyph of frost bolt and equals 77.81% (24.27x3)+5=77.81% This all i figured out after testing the ability ON PLAYERS, not dummies.

How to reproduce: This all i figured out after testing the ability ON PLAYERS, not dummies. My stats and recount (https://imgur.com/a/PKKk6bq ) So after testing 204 Frostbolt on player, each of spell was casted only when player was frozen(37 min video of testing, can check: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZC0q4kszqg ) and the result of test were: 77.9% of critical hits of frostbolt when estimated chance was 87.81%. And 77.9% would be estimated probability only if the calculations were done wrong way as i mentioned before(when 5% crit chance from glyph is added AFTER the multiplication of basic crit by 3) For example, ice lance showed result of 72.9% of critical hits overall after 133 attempts, which equals to its estimated chance of 72.81%

How it should work: As i said, formula FIRSTLY must add the 5% crit chance from frostbolt glyph to basic crit chance of player, and then multiply it by 3 from shatter talent

Database links:

[dickonhard]

What info needed?

[dickonhard]

@Sketish should I provide some sort of info or what?

[mipanka]

mb https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Critical_Mass this talent too work bad

[bonfax4]

This is one of those things that would be hard to prove but this early cata guide does mention it.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/820907-Mage-The-Ultimate-Guide-to-Frost

Keep in mind that Shatter takes each spell's individual crit chance into account – if you have glyph of frost bolt, for example, that's actually +15% crit after Shatter.

Also going over frost elitistjerks frost post, critical mass or similar crit debuffs should also account for shatter ( according to early tests, unless smthing changed later on ).

@dickonhard Test 5% critical debuff and see if it triples

[bonfax4]

@Sketish also this

[Sketish]

Ah my comment wasnt send for some reason, I wanted proff that multiplied crit chance should be always all crit from stats+glyph+talents summed before. Blizzard used to not count something. But @bonfax4 helped with info

[dickonhard]

@Sketish they counted all outgoing critical chance before multiplying. They might have not counted for example the +5% crit chance debuff on target (from scorch for example) to be multiplied. This might have actually been added after multiplication. Just like other buffs or rebuffs on target like barkskin for example, which should reduce crit chance taken by 25% but after all of the multiplications. So I’m assuming there must be such logic: the final spells crit chance is calculated by 1) outgoing crit chance from subject who launch the spell 2) +- buffs or debuffs incoming crit chance of subject 2 who gets casted on. So multiplication must be the last phase of calculating the OUTGOING crit chance, and afterwards, you just plus minus from debuffs. This is my semantic assumptions, but I don’t see other versions making more sense, since it’s really difficult to prove what calculations were 12 years ago

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 thank you for participating <3

[bonfax4]

Critical debuff did count for shatter crit calc as well. This prob also means crit reductions affect it the same way, before the 3x multiplier is factored in.

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 I means there’s a lot of space for debate, whether or not it +5% should be multiplied by 3. I know for a fact that barkskin (-25%) always reduced crit chance after multiplication. So there’s a contradiction. I assumed that the criteria is the “out-in” factor, which at least sounds logical. But it’s not a fact ofc @Sketish what do you think?

[bonfax4]

You are prob right. All the conversations I'm seeing that argue if boss crit suppression ( 2% ) is in effect that crit cap would raise to @34% (34*3 = 102 ) and not @35.3% like you'd expect.

Edit : 5% crit debuffs were increased by shatter tho. Rawr and the discussions I'm coming across agree with this.

[bonfax4]

@dickonhard talents are working fine right ? Just realized fire pvp would be currently nerfed if talents like improved fire blast + spell crit debuff didn't work with shatter.

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 i haven’t tested fire tbf, I suppose 5% from scorch is counted in shatter, otherwise there would have been so many complaints. Another question wether it should or should not be actually multiplied im still wondering

[dickonhard]

On the one hand it fits my logic that it shouldn’t. On the other hand I dunno if devs would ever nerf fire like that, if it gets multiplied rn

[bonfax4]

It should be multiplied so it would be working as intended

[dickonhard]

I’m not gonna debate on that one, cuz I haven’t researched that one. Was just expressing my thoughts

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 by the way, there’s sort of contradiction, since the test showed that 5% is multiplied by shatter, but some gm confirmed it didnt(in this case =shouldn’t)

[bonfax4]

Look below. Some guy literally went and tested and it did work. Gms are not devs. I can also link more guide mentions of frost pve crit cap including 5% debuff for the 33.4% crit cap

[dickonhard]

Yes I saw it worked, I mean what if it shouldn’t, just was a bug

[dickonhard]

It’s a philosophical question tho, since I’m down for blizzlike with their errors and bugs actually

[bonfax4]

That won't matter, the fix will be based on how it worked and not how it should work. The reason they custom implemented "ignite munching" mechanic here.

[mipanka]

I now tested pyroblast crit, glyph https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Glyph_of_Pyroblast. My crit chance and 5% https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Critical_Mass = 33.43%*3 = 100.29% and got no crit pyroblast

[dickonhard]

@mipanka and fireball?

[bonfax4]

What are you testing against btw ? 85 dummy ?

[dickonhard]

Yea by the way test it on people, gms won’t take into consideration dummy tests

[bonfax4]

Not that it's needed at this point but Cartoonz mentioning pyro glyph gets the 3x boost from shatter https://youtu.be/hVIaYJoT_5U?t=7m27s

[dickonhard]

It must get yeah, as well as fireball glyph

[bonfax4]

Oof looking at some mop data crit suppression affected crit before shatter calculations so now I'm not sure again if spells like barkskin crit reduction happens before or after ? Any definite proof on that ?

https://www.icy-veins.com/forums/topic/6560-frost-how-important-is-crit/ https://www.wowhead.com/spell=12982/shatter#comments https://www.bluetracker.gg/wow/topic/us-en/5889309137-beta-class-balance-analysis/

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 its completely a different game and story, I remember and nobody will argue that it didn’t affect crit too much on ferals with skin, if it was calculated before then chance of crit would have been around 0%. besides right now it’s in ferals interest to prove it wrong.

[dickonhard]

@Sketish do I have to make separate reports for pyroblast glyph, fireball glyph, and critical mass? Because even from these topics it’s obvious that all of them were multiplied by shatter talent. You can just check if they get multiplied or not and fix them if not

[bonfax4]

@dickonhard https://youtu.be/UnGImLYzujY?t=1m19s Very small sample pool but he says barkskin made druid uncrittable when he tried to burst.

I'll look around for more feral mage duels

https://youtu.be/fbeJKiW_N5U @ 4 shatter hits throughout the vid with barkskin up and no crits.

https://youtu.be/01u0psILNY0?t=1m52s 2 shatter hits, no crits

https://youtu.be/M7UC43u9ngs?t=18s more none crits against barkskin throughout the vid.

This is the one time I saw a crit against barkskin. https://youtu.be/tlv2AZjxhI0?t=3m6s. Throughout the video his shatters fail against it but Frost nova crit went through? Possible he had over 25% crit.

Also possible they have low crit but saw cartoonz had @ 18% crit with crit reforged vicious gear. That's a 29% shatter crit chance against glyphed barkskin, if calc happened after.

[dickonhard]

Well it seems like it’s broken too then

[dickonhard]

@Sketish any thoughts man?

[bonfax4]

Critical mass and barkskin seem to be fine so far from what i tested as in calc being done pre-shatter. Only problem is crit glyphs

[dickonhard]

@bonfax4 i will test it again this week, but yeah glyphs 100% don’t work, question is only critical mass

[dickonhard]

@Sketish yo man I know you’re busy with more important DS stuff, but if you would find some time for this would appreciate it bro

[Sketish]

Make other report for fireball/pyro and critical mass. Currently this one has medium prio. Prolly will be looked after DS hc release

[dickonhard]

@Sketish alright, thanks!

[dickonhard]

@Sketish how’s it going?

[UltraNix]

Fixed.