Open bcbernardo opened 1 year ago
Hi! I'll comment on the generalized version of this idea first:
It probably makes sense to iterate in this direction instead of trying to get it right on the first attempt. But solving the full problem properly will be especially valuable, I think, and it's pretty high on my list of priorities.
Hey all! I am a user of both Guesstimate and the (also open sourced) Manifold Markets forecasting platform.
As a feature idea, I think it would be really nice if the two platforms had an integration so that one could use the forecasts made in a Manifold market as the input for a metric in a Guesstimate model. This would allow estimates to be crowd-sourced and (ideally) updated according to the distribution of guesses of the prediction market, potentially making models more accurate.