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gnosis / prediction-market-agent-tooling

Tools to benchmark, deploy and monitor prediction market agents.
GNU Lesser General Public License v3.0
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Extension of Arbitrage agent - use conditional probabilities between markets as part of arbitrage strategy #486

Closed gabrielfior closed 1 month ago

gabrielfior commented 1 month ago

On https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/issues/137 a simple Arbitrage agent was developed, allowing markets (on the same platform, Omen) to be arbitraged when correlation between them was close to 1 or -1.

We can expand that approach for the case where correlation (which can also be seen as P(A|B), i.e. likelihood that event A occurs if B also occurs) lies somewhere -1 < c < 1. Some math calculations are available here (notion link).

gabrielfior commented 1 month ago

Moved this ticket to https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent/issues/508