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gnosis / prediction-market-agent

GNU Lesser General Public License v3.0
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Arbitrage Agent #137

Open evangriffiths opened 2 months ago

evangriffiths commented 2 months ago

Create an agent that doesn't make predictions based on research, but instead looks for arbitrage opportunities (2 +ve/-vely correlated markets with differntly correlated market p_yes values).

gabrielfior commented 2 months ago

One way to implement this would be to -> Find pair of markets that present very high abs correlation (e.g. "Trump will be president in 2024", "Biden ... 2024") -> If abs(p_yes_trump - p_no_Biden) > threshold, do action

We should then define 1. threshold and 2. action. -> For threshold, we should probably investigate a few examples. -> For action, could you comment on the optimal ways to act in such markets?