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grimreaper / wolf

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Same Time Night Calculation #30

Open GoogleCodeExporter opened 9 years ago

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
Describe what the feature is:
Same time night calculation sends all PMs for night actions at the same time. 
The player who the harlot visits is not told until end of night, the Seer does 
not get his peek until end of night (or at all, if he died during the night), 
and players are not told they are being guarded by the GA until end of night.

WARNING: BUNCH OF MATH BELOW, NOT FOR THE FAINT OF MIND. :p

In 4 player games especially, the Wolf is at an incredible disadvantage, 
partially due to the current Night Calculation system. If the Seer is faster 
than the wolf (which, in my experience, happens about half the time), they have 
a 33% chance of seeing the wolf AND having the time to fire off a quick blip in 
the channel about it like "WM wolf". So, in a given game, there's a 16% chance 
that the game will be over before the first night is even finished.

Overall, assuming all players choose randomly and act in their best interest 
(no mistakes, AFK villagers, etc), the following may happen:
Wolf Claims Seer (~35% chance to win):
~16% - Seer sees wolf and is able to post in the channel before the wolf kills. 
Wolf has 0% chance to win.
~28% - Wolf kills Seer before the Seer says anything, claims Villager. Wolf has 
75% chance to win.
~28% - Wolf claims Seer and chooses correct safe. Wolf has 50% chance to win.
~28% - Wolf claims Seer and chooses incorrect safe. Wolf has 0% chance to win.

Wolf Claims Villager (~31% chance to win):
~16% - Seer sees wolf and is able to post in the channel before the wolf kills. 
Wolf has 0% chance to win.
~28% - Wolf kills Seer before the Seer says anything, claims Villager. Wolf has 
75% chance to win.
~37% - Wolf does not claim Seer, but Seer saw a player who is still alive. Wolf 
has 0% chance to win.
~19% - Wolf does not claim Seer, and Seer peeked the player the wolf killed. 
Wolf has a 50% chance to win.

Now, if we use Same Time Night Calculation to withhold peek results from a dead 
Seer, it looks like this:
Wolf Claims Seer (~41% chance to win):
~33% - Wolf kills Seer, claims Villager. Wolf has 75% chance to win.
~33% - Wolf claims Seer and chooses correct safe. Wolf has 50% chance to win.
~33% - Wolf claims Seer and chooses incorrect safe. Wolf has 0% chance to win.

Wolf Claims Villager (~36% chance to win):
~33% - Wolf kills Seer, claims Villager. Wolf has 75% chance to win.
~45% - Wolf does not claim Seer, but Seer saw a player who is still alive. Wolf 
has 0% chance to win.
~22% - Wolf does not claim Seer, and Seer peeked the player the wolf killed. 
Wolf has a 50% chance to win.

As you can see, at least for 4 player, this is far more balanced.

Have you discussed this with anyone else? What did they say?
I've talked with several players about it at one time or another. Not really in 
detail except with jcao. People usually either didn't care much or agreed with 
me.

Original issue reported on code.google.com by Rainboy...@gmail.com on 12 Aug 2011 at 5:27

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
I don't see anything wrong with this, and it helps to balance the game some 
more.  Probably would only matter in games of 4 or 5.  Nice math, by the way.

Original comment by anonymou...@gmail.com on 12 Aug 2011 at 9:12

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
I'm confused by your math

Wolf Claims Seer (~41% chance to win):
~33% - Wolf kills Seer, claims Villager. Wolf has 75% chance to win.

How could the wolf claim villager after claiming seer? Did the wolf change its 
claim?

Original comment by eitan@eitanadler.com on 12 Aug 2011 at 2:03

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
[deleted comment]
GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
No. The wolf would claim Seer only after night, and only if they did not kill 
the actual Seer.

In that situation, if either of the villagers chose incorrectly the wolf would 
win. The wolf losing would be like flipping two coins and having them both be 
heads.

Original comment by Rainboy...@gmail.com on 12 Aug 2011 at 4:52

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago

Original comment by anonymou...@gmail.com on 14 Aug 2011 at 1:42

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
Alright. I agree with this change in general. IMHO it was always a bug that we 
didn't tell people the results of the nightime actions at the same time.
I note that if the wolves kill the seer, and the seer sees a wolf, we would 
like for the seer to be able to mention it. Perhaps we should have a 10 second 
window or so after the results prior to daytime? Any thoughts? Leave it to a 
vote?

Original comment by eitan@eitanadler.com on 14 Aug 2011 at 2:02

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago

Original comment by eitan@eitanadler.com on 14 Aug 2011 at 2:03

GoogleCodeExporter commented 9 years ago 
I personally think it is a flaw for the Seer to actually get a see on the night 
he is killed... that was the whole point of the maths above - to prove that (at 
least) 4 player games see much better balance if the Seer's info dies with him.

I understand that this is just my opinion, though; a vote would be welcomed.

Original comment by Rainboy...@gmail.com on 14 Aug 2011 at 2:08