gtrebilcock / BitcoinEconometrics

0 stars 1 forks source link

Midterm Review - cw654 #12

Open cwang1113 opened 4 years ago

cwang1113 commented 4 years ago

This project deals with the forecasting of bitcoin prices, using various features such as GPU pricing, US Inflation Rate, and gold prices. The objective is to create a regression model that can use these features to determine the estimated price. Data is retrieved from various sources and then joined together to create a tabular data format.

I think the idea of trying to replace missing data is really interesting, by using the median of the surrounding data points to try to create an estimate of the data. I also think the new features derived from the original five variables is also interesting. In particular, I like the auto-regressive feature, because it attempts to capture the time-series format of the data. I also like the plots used to compare the predicted and true prices, to help visualize the errors of the model.

One thing that I would explore is how effective different models would perform for regression. For example, random-forest regression could be used on the tabular data rather than a simple linear regression. Furthermore, the distribution of some of the features used seems to hover around 0, this makes me question whether or not these features will be useful. I think that it may be better to have features that are uniformly distributed, such that you aren't biased towards the most frequent features. Furthermore, I would add a time series plot, which would help readers visualize the results of the data better. Finally, I think that the regression problem maybe a little too difficult, but a more feasible problem can be whether or not the price of bitcoin will increase/decrease the following day. This would be a classification problem, which is simpler than a regression problem.

Overall, I think the group has done great work so far, and I think the visuals are very helpful for readers, and I am excited to see what comes next.