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gtrebilcock / BitcoinEconometrics

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Peer Review - ss2627 #5

Open mianyangSharon opened 4 years ago

mianyangSharon commented 4 years ago

Project: Bitcoin Econometrics Summary: The characteristics of traditional currency supply and demand which forms the basis of currency pricing are absent on bitcoin markets, so the standard economic theories have a hard time to model the bitcoin prices. The goal of this project is to research the possibility of predicting the price movement of bitcoin, and to observe the possible correlations between some metrics and the bitcoin prices. The project uses public available data on bitcoin. Three things I like about the project:

  1. I like the choice of the topic, and the introduction explains the current situation on bitcoin prices and why traditional economic theories fail on modeling it, which makes it very convincing to me why this project is worth investing for.
  2. I like the clear explanation on the factors this project is considering (Gold prices, inflation rate, GPU pricing), what they are and why they are being considered.
  3. I like the citation of references links, they are very helpful in terms of providing background readings. Concerns:
  4. Bitcoin started in 2009, so it has been a relatively new thing, and it is affected by many international events, the limited amount of data could be a potential issue.
  5. Since the inflation rate might be a potential drive for the bitcoin price as investors seeking relatively the safer choice, do you think maybe including other pessimism factors will be a good idea? For example, many articles consider the US-China trade war and No-deal Brexit to drive bitcoin prices high.
  6. Sometimes we consider its competitors’ prices when we try to model a product’s price, Bitcoin might be different since it is a cryptocurrency, but it could also be considered as a financial product in a way, so do you think other cryptocurrency could affect the prices of bitcoins?