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hackcollective / corona-calculator

📈 Understand the impact of social distancing measures upon Corona spread in your community
http://corona-calculator.herokuapp.com
MIT License
28 stars 15 forks source link

Add historical data into the disease spread graph #42

Closed archydeberker closed 4 years ago

archydeberker commented 4 years ago

The simulations give a slightly misleading picture in countries which have already taken very drastic measures, like South Korea:

image

Since historical case load data is available, it would be good to add that into the graphs. We could then initialize the SIR models from these variables, which I don't think we do right now: https://github.com/archydeberker/corona-calculator/blob/ea07bd8638a8f992e74a25f801eb27c49c545175/models.py#L21

There are other and perhaps better ways to incorporate this too...

psteeves commented 4 years ago

@archydeberker Do you mean just adding an initial value for R? Or something else

archydeberker commented 4 years ago

It would be good to superimpose the actual data onto the SIR models

psteeves commented 4 years ago

We only forecast into the future right now (every refresh we pull the latest data in and any past predictions are lost). Adding real historical data would be a pretty big change

archydeberker commented 4 years ago

Closed by https://github.com/archydeberker/corona-calculator/pull/55