Mental Models Toolbox| 心智模型工具箱

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心智模型工具箱

博客法姆街(Farnam Street) ，是充满噪音世界的一个优质信息源 Farnam Street — A Signal in a World Full of Noise 博客主理人Shane Parrish 整理了一张促进明智决策，提高理商的心智模型清单；这张心智模型清单，也是通识思考概念的列表，是很好的打磨认知系统心智程序的启发器。

文章传送门：Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (109 Models Explained)

各位书友伙伴，可以共同分工协作，以一张张术语卡，拆解消化一个个改善心智的概念模型。 大家一起来动手吧。

下面是 基本心智模型清单：

General Thinking Concepts

1. The Map is not the Territory

2. Circle of Competence

3. First Principles Thinking

4. Thought Experiment

5. Second-Order Thinking

6. Probabilistic Thinking

7. Inversion

8. Occam’s Razor

9. Hanlon’s Razor

Numeracy

1. Permutations and Combinations

2. Algebraic Equivalence

3. Randomness

4. Stochastic Processes (Poisson, Markov, Random Walk)

5. Compounding

6. Multiplying by Zero

7. Churn

8. Law of Large Numbers

9. Bell Curve/Normal Distribution

10. Power Laws

11. Regression to the Mean

12. Order of Magnitude

Systems

1. Scale

2. Law of Diminishing Returns

3. Pareto Principle

4. Feedback Loops (and Homeostasis)

5. Chaos Dynamics (Butterfly Effect)/ (Sensitivity to Initial Conditions)

6. Preferential Attachment (Cumulative Advantage)

7. Emergence8. Irreducibility

8. Tragedy of the Commons

9. Gresham’s Law

10. Algorithms

11. Fragility – Robustness – Antifragility

12. Backup Systems/Redundancy

13. Margin of Safety

14. Criticality

15. Network Effects

16. Via Negativa – Omission/Removal/Avoidance of Harm

17. The Lindy Effect

18. Renormalization Group

19. Spring-loading

20. Complex Adaptive Systems

Physical World

1. Laws of Thermodynamics

2. Reciprocity

3. Velocity

4. Relativity

5. Activation Energy

6. Catalysts

7. Leverage

8. Inertia9. Alloying

9. Viscosity

The Biological World

1. Incentives

2. Cooperation (Including Symbiosis and Prisoner’s Dilemma)

3. Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental & Physical)

4. Adaptation

5. Evolution by Natural Selection

6. The Red Queen Effect (Co-evolutionary Arms Race)

7. Replication

8. Hierarchical and Other Organizing Instincts

9. Self-Preservation Instincts

10. Simple Physiological Reward-Seeking

11. Exaptation

12. Ecosystems

13. Niches

14. Dunbar’s Number

Human Nature & Judgment

1. Trust

2. Bias from Incentives

3. Pavlovian Association

4. Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy

5. Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating

6. Denial

7. Availability Heuristic

8. Representativeness Heuristic

a. Failure to Account for Base Rates

b. Tendency to Stereotype

c. Failure to See False Conjunctions

9. Social Proof (Safety in Numbers)

10. Narrative Instinct

11. Curiosity Instinct

12. Language Instinct

13. First-Conclusion Bias

14. Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples

15. Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies

16. Commitment & Consistency Bias

17. Hindsight Bias

18. Sensitivity to Fairness

19. Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error)

20. Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points)

21. Survivorship Bias

22. Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.)

23. Falsification / Confirmation Bias

Microeconomics & Strategy

1. Opportunity Costs

2. Creative Destruction

3. Comparative Advantage

4. Specialization (Pin Factory)

5. Seizing the Middle

6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights

7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping

8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)

9. Bottlenecks

10. Bribery

11. Arbitrage

12. Supply and Demand

13. Scarcity

14. Mr. Market

Military & War

1. Seeing the Front

2. Asymmetric Warfare

3. Two-Front War

4. Counterinsurgency

5. Mutually Assured Destruction

[heshenxian1]

A Latticework of Mental Models

The Farnam Street Latticework of Mental Models

General Thinking Concepts 普适思考概念

1. The Map is not the Territory 地图并非领土

2. Circle of Competence 能力圈

3. First Principles Thinking 第一原理思考

4. Thought Experiment 思想实验

5. Second-Order Thinking 二阶思维（第二层思考）

6. Probabilistic Thinking 概率思维（比如长尾和贝叶斯迭代）

7. Inversion 逆向思考（倒置，反转）

8. Occam’s Razor 奥卡姆剃刀

9. Hanlon’s Razor 汉隆剃刀

Numeracy 算术数学

1. Permutations and Combinations 排列与组合

2. Algebraic Equivalence 代数等价

3. Randomness 随机性

4. Stochastic Processes (Poisson, Markov, Random Walk) 随机过程(泊松，马尔可夫，随机漫步)

5. Compounding 复利

6. Multiplying by Zero 乘以零

7. Churn 搅拌器

8. Law of Large Numbers 大数定律

9. Bell Curve/Normal Distribution 钟型曲线|标准九|正态分布

10. Power Laws 幂律

11. Regression to the Mean 均值回归

12. Order of Magnitude 数量级

Systems 系统

1. Scale 尺度

2. Law of Diminishing Returns 边际效益递减

3. Pareto Principle 帕累托原则

4. Feedback Loops (and Homeostasis) 反馈回路（和内稳态）

5. Chaos Dynamics (Butterfly Effect)/ (Sensitivity to Initial Conditions) 混沌动力学(蝴蝶效应) / (对初始条件的敏感性)

6. Preferential Attachment (Cumulative Advantage) 先发依赖（累积优势）

7. Emergence 涌现

8. Irreducibility 不可逆|不可还原性

9. Tragedy of the Commons 公地悲剧

10. Gresham’s Law 格雷欣法则（劣币驱逐良币）

11. Algorithms 算法

12. Fragility – Robustness – Antifragility 脆弱性-稳健性(鲁棒性)-抗脆弱性

13. Backup Systems/Redundancy 备份系统 / 冗余

14. Margin of Safety 安全区间（安全程度）

15. Criticality 临界性

16. Network Effects 网络效应

17. Via Negativa – Omission/Removal/Avoidance of Harm

18. The Lindy Effect 林迪效应(长寿者预期更长寿)

19. Renormalization Group 重整化集群

20. Spring-loading 弹簧加载

21. Complex Adaptive Systems 复杂适应性系统

Physical World 物理世界

1. Laws of Thermodynamics 热力学定律

2. Reciprocity 互惠（作用力与反作用力）

3. Velocity 速度矢量（非速率）

4. Relativity 相对论

5. Activation Energy 活化能

6. Catalysts 催化剂

7. Leverage 杠杆作用

8. Inertia 惯性

9. Alloying 合金化

10. Viscosity 粘度

The Biological World 生物世界

1. Incentives 激励

2. Cooperation (Including Symbiosis and Prisoner’s Dilemma) 合作(包括共生与囚徒困境)|竞合一体

3. Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental & Physical) 倾向于最小化能量输出(精神和身体)

4. Adaptation 适应

5. Evolution by Natural Selection 天择演化

6. The Red Queen Effect (Co-evolutionary Arms Race) 红皇后效应(共同进化的军备竞赛)

7. Replication 复制

8. Hierarchical and Other Organizing Instincts 等级制和其他组织本能

9. Self-Preservation Instincts 自我保护本能

10. Simple Physiological Reward-Seeking 简单的生物回馈寻求

11. Exaptation 移植

12. Ecosystems 生态系统

13. Niches 利基，生态位

14. Dunbar’s Number 邓巴数

Human Nature & Judgment 人性与判断

1. Trust 信任

2. Bias from Incentives 激励偏见

3. Pavlovian Association 巴普洛夫联结

4. Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy 羡慕嫉妒恨的倾向

5. Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating 爱恨好恶的扭曲倾向

6. Denial 否认现实

7. Availability Heuristic 易得性-认知吝啬

8. Representativeness Heuristic 代表性-认知吝啬

a. Failure to Account for Base Rates 基础概率计算盲区

b. Tendency to Stereotype 刻板印象倾向

c. Failure to See False Conjunctions 错误析取的盲视

1. Social Proof (Safety in Numbers) 社会认同（多数安全）

2. Narrative Instinct 叙事本能

3. Curiosity Instinct 好奇心本能

4. Language Instinct 语言本能

5. First-Conclusion Bias 第一结论偏见

6. Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples 以偏概全，小样本过度概括倾向

7. Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies 相对满足|痛苦倾向；对比参照律

8. Commitment & Consistency Bias 承诺与一致性偏见

9. Hindsight Bias 事后诸葛亮偏见

10. Sensitivity to Fairness 对公平敏感

11. Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error) 高估行为一致性的倾向（基本归因谬误）

12. Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points) 压力影响（包括断裂点）

13. Survivorship Bias 幸存者偏差

14. Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.) 想要做某事的倾向(战斗 / 逃跑，介入干预，价值论证等等)

15. Falsification / Confirmation Bias 证伪/证实偏差；确认偏差（因选择而相信）

Microeconomics & Strategy 微观经济学和策略

1. Opportunity Costs 机会成本

2. Creative Destruction 创造性破坏，颠覆性创新

3. Comparative Advantage 比较优势

4. Specialization (Pin Factory) 专业化（大头针厂）

5. Seizing the Middle （抓住中盘）

6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights （商标，专利和版权）

7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping （复式账本）

8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing) 效用（边际，递减，递增）

9. Bottlenecks 瓶颈

10. Bribery 贿赂（代理人寻租）

11. Arbitrage 套利

12. Supply and Demand 供求关系

13. Scarcity 稀缺性

14. Mr. Market 市场先生

Military & War 军事与战争

1. Seeing the Front 看第一线

2. Asymmetric Warfare 非对称作战

3. Two-Front War 两线作战

4. Counterinsurgency 反叛乱

5. Mutually Assured Destruction 相互确保的毁灭（核威慑）