Data Review and Enhance

[highlyprofitable108]

• Test data validity
• Figure out how to backtest and rate models

[highlyprofitable108]

Seems like there is a home/away issue?

Here are the middle 4 weekly_ranks for 11/15/22. Severe drop after team 13 (26 teams played that week) { "_id" : ObjectId("652c0414df0b7f4cba7c173e"), "id" : "e6aa13a4-0055-48a9-bc41-be28dc106929", "name" : "Falcons", "update_date" : ISODate("2022-11-15T00:00:00.000+0000"), "normalized_power_rank" : 0.6695269202135068, "power_rank" : 42.91739661671345, "summary.possession_time" : 30.036085384637538, "summary.avg_gain" : 5.342313946879489, "summary.safeties" : 0.04835021294626404, "summary.turnovers" : 1.1297275512662868, "summary.play_count" : 58.20491111725415, "summary.rush_plays" : 32.71418927344245, "summary.total_yards" : 309.8197919930662, "summary.fumbles" : 1.1829366551528329, "summary.lost_fumbles" : 0.47421063655784707, "summary.penalties" : 4.1141887203972525, "summary.penalty_yards" : 34.74847740316009, "summary.return_yards" : 37.00730568750606, "week_number" : NumberInt(46) } { "_id" : ObjectId("652c0414df0b7f4cba7c173f"), "id" : "82d2d380-3834-4938-835f-aec541e5ece7", "name" : "Texans", "update_date" : ISODate("2022-11-15T00:00:00.000+0000"), "normalized_power_rank" : 0.6362688742456168, "power_rank" : 41.518068089092694, "summary.possession_time" : 28.760321600899417, "summary.avg_gain" : 5.261002962919169, "summary.safeties" : 0.00000003421792306461893, "summary.turnovers" : 1.3282393391508809, "summary.play_count" : 57.78571926263468, "summary.rush_plays" : 23.03837612581794, "summary.total_yards" : 306.0079809969181, "summary.fumbles" : 0.7875125757004837, "summary.lost_fumbles" : 0.2142088237339329, "summary.penalties" : 5.453559255956398, "summary.penalty_yards" : 37.827576160659696, "summary.return_yards" : 21.286317067782278, "week_number" : NumberInt(46) } { "_id" : ObjectId("652c0414df0b7f4cba7c1740"), "id" : "6680d28d-d4d2-49f6-aace-5292d3ec02c2", "name" : "Chiefs", "update_date" : ISODate("2022-11-15T00:00:00.000+0000"), "normalized_power_rank" : 0.1032479644635966, "power_rank" : 19.09127351443631, "summary.possession_time" : 31.79047406983609, "summary.avg_gain" : 6.5455657370754, "summary.safeties" : 0.1366900332691956, "summary.turnovers" : 1.4822213177683532, "summary.play_count" : 68.22665132800945, "summary.rush_plays" : 23.580002464163545, "summary.total_yards" : 438.777250125592, "summary.fumbles" : 1.2724764012757441, "summary.lost_fumbles" : 0.5850770304476316, "summary.penalties" : 5.292907445134846, "summary.penalty_yards" : 49.84645677306327, "summary.return_yards" : 25.32128292490508, "week_number" : NumberInt(46) } { "_id" : ObjectId("652c0414df0b7f4cba7c1741"), "id" : "d5a2eb42-8065-4174-ab79-0a6fa820e35e", "name" : "Browns", "update_date" : ISODate("2022-11-15T00:00:00.000+0000"), "normalized_power_rank" : 0.07877721336966444, "power_rank" : 18.061669426117152, "summary.possession_time" : 30.91270757385319, "summary.avg_gain" : 5.691043012630142, "summary.safeties" : 0.000000000000050774516488722424, "summary.turnovers" : 1.687473707408126, "summary.play_count" : 65.65074915764555, "summary.rush_plays" : 30.92104289218854, "summary.total_yards" : 373.03287222463166, "summary.fumbles" : 1.4637640496790092, "summary.lost_fumbles" : 0.9789799337457772, "summary.penalties" : 6.2657277935535625, "summary.penalty_yards" : 52.904704265237434, "summary.return_yards" : 8.049283499373386, "week_number" : NumberInt(46) } { "_id" : ObjectId("652c0414df0b7f4cba7c1742"), "id" : "7b112545-38e6-483c-a55c-96cf6ee49cb8", "name" : "Bears", "update_date" : ISODate("2022-11-15T00:00:00.000+0000"), "normalized_power_rank" : 0.07544936630737024, "power_rank" : 17.92165063684964, "summary.possession_time" : 31.263959697651178, "summary.avg_gain" : 5.62876966781651, "summary.safeties" : 0.0000004953671912240362, "summary.turnovers" : 1.2173612794934168, "summary.play_count" : 62.49306396122204, "summary.rush_plays" : 36.77737963230861, "summary.total_yards" : 349.5832895459024, "summary.fumbles" : 2.183158402519578, "summary.lost_fumbles" : 0.6318371600833876, "summary.penalties" : 5.505923589348566, "summary.penalty_yards" : 56.140666687831846, "summary.return_yards" : 28.749930975867755, "week_number" : NumberInt(46) }

[highlyprofitable108]

two stats rows per game? how does that work?

[highlyprofitable108]

Removed home away logic and replaced it with differences and ratios.

Normalized power ranks look stable