Open stsievert opened 5 years ago
I need a baseline to start of with. To do this, I used a linear regressor on every site to predict the last year at the same site. I used the same model as a baseline with the global prediction, but predicted a different (unseen) site, not the latest year.
Apparently, the correlation coefficient is the metric cared about. I run these simulations 179 times (once for each station). Here are the distribution of correlation coefficients from these trials:
We can see that the linear model at one site significantly outperforms the global linear model.
The summary statistics are
Statistic | One site predicting last year at same site |
All sites predicting one held out site |
---|---|---|
Median | 0.573 | 0.441 |
Mean | 0.497 | 0.398 |
Sounds promising. Still WIP?
Still a WIP. Mostly, I know the baseline performance (what's considered "good"), and have a metric to improve upon.
This adds a prediction from all global sites. This is still a work in progress: I need to make this a better predictor.