search

ictr / covid19-outbreak-simulator

Population-based Forward-time Simulator for the Outbreak of COVID-19
https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/
Other
1 stars 3 forks source link

Fixing the scale of viral load #16

Closed BoPeng closed 3 years ago

BoPeng commented 3 years ago

Right now viral load is proportional to transmissibility, which has a scale that is determined by R. When R is large, the scale of viral load can be large, which is unrealistic.

It is better to fix the scale of viral loads although the starting and peak locations can follow the cure of transmissibility.

BoPeng commented 3 years ago

Changes have been made to make

  1. R0 specified as a single number or distribution will be used to influence viral load as before.
  2. Multiplier will no longer influence viral load.

That is to say,

  1. The population will have a baseline R0 that is supposed to be "biological driven" and influences viral loads.
  2. Each subpopulation can have its own multiplier that reflects the impact of social distancing, mask wearing etc.