First cut of historical emissions to 2022

[chrisroadmap]

This will be used for the first iteration of ScenarioMIP IAM runs taken from historical emissions harmonisation. We will mostly follow the process from Smith et al. (2024).

• CO2 Fossil & Energy from Global Carbon Project (to include or not to include cement carbonation sink?)
• CO2 AFOLU from Global Carbon Project

Energy, industrial and agricultural sources for the following will be from:

• CH4: CEDS (different to Smith et al. 2024) from 1970-2022, with an extension back from 1970 based on PRIMAP-Hist Third Party
• N2O: PRIMAP-Hist Third Party
• Kyoto F-gases: PRIMAP-Hist Third Party, with scale factor to reproduce present-day abundances with IPCC AR6 lifetimes. Per-species split to be done using RCMIP SSP2-4.5 scenario with GWP100 weighted totals. OR update from AGAGE folks
• Montreal gases: based on inverting concentrations reported in Forster et al. (2024) with IPCC AR6 lifetimes. OR update from AGAGE folks
• Short-lived climate forcers: CEDS

Biomass burning (applies to CH4, N2O, short-lived forcers):

• CMIP6 BB4CMIP dataset 1750-1996
• GFED4.1s from 1997

If time and data permits, the sources of methane will be split into biogenic and non-biogenic components.

[jkikstra]

I can have a first go next week at the GFED4.1s biomass burning for national/sectoral level, based on input from Jonas.

[chrisroadmap]

Cool. It shouldn't be required for this first cut but since you will be doing this anyway, go ahead 😁

[jkikstra]

I just implemented a first try based on commit caff369d4a771618d538f1882b803c50b0146e25, script 0102_GFED4-prepare.py.

After you run it, you get these global emissions: gfed_cmip7_global_alpha.csv

How does that look to you?

No backward extension is implemented there yet.

[jkikstra]

No backward extension is implemented there yet.

This should be in the BB4CMIP data, which is being worked on but still needs to be finalised.