It doesn't appear as if your calculator is giving a hit to candidates in ridings where they have dropped out. Nor does it appear to be adjusting for results of recent by-elections, which appear to indicate a shift in polling outcomes for the riding since the last election.
The particular riding where this appears to be happening is Victoria, where the official Liberal candidate has dropped out of the race but remains on the ballot. anyonebutharper.net projection numbers for Victoria seem very odd, given how well the Greens did in Victoria in the last byelection. Your site projects:
NDP: 42%
Liberal: 29%
Green 15%
Conservative: 14%
When in the last Victoria byelection in Victoria the results came out very strongly for the Greens:
New Democratic Murray Rankin 14,507 37.17%
Green Donald Galloway 13,389 34.30%
Conservative Dale Gann 5,654 14.49%
Liberal Paul Summerville 5,097 13.06%
We know that a candidate remaining on the ballot while officially dropping out has a significant effect on vote outcomes. A quantifiable effect of the dropout effect is readily observable when looking at the next door riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, where in 2008 NDP candidate Julian West dropped out while staying on the ballot. Liberal candidate Briony Penn's results in that race showed just how starkly NDP votes shifted to her: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saanich%E2%80%94Gulf_Islands
It doesn't appear as if your calculator is giving a hit to candidates in ridings where they have dropped out. Nor does it appear to be adjusting for results of recent by-elections, which appear to indicate a shift in polling outcomes for the riding since the last election.
The particular riding where this appears to be happening is
Victoria, where the official Liberal candidate has dropped out of the race but remains on the ballot. anyonebutharper.net projection numbers for Victoria seem very odd, given how well the Greens did in Victoria in the last byelection. Your site projects:When in the last Victoria byelection in Victoria the results came out very strongly for the Greens:
We know that a candidate remaining on the ballot while officially dropping out has a significant effect on vote outcomes. A quantifiable effect of the dropout effect is readily observable when looking at the next door riding of
Saanich-Gulf Islands, where in 2008 NDP candidate Julian West dropped out while staying on the ballot. Liberal candidate Briony Penn's results in that race showed just how starkly NDP votes shifted to her: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saanich%E2%80%94Gulf_Islands