Gold price prediction by using LSTM model

[PRIYANSHU2026]

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Gold Price Prediction

Project Overview

This project aims to predict the price of gold using various machine learning models. The project includes data exploration, feature engineering, model training, and evaluation.

Requirements

1. Data Retrieval:

   • Collect historical gold price data from a reliable source.

2. Data Exploration:

   • Perform exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand the data distribution and patterns.
   • Visualize the data to identify trends and relationships.

3. Feature Engineering:

   • Create new features that could improve the model's performance.
   • Handle missing values and perform data normalization/standardization.

4. Model Training:

   • Train various machine learning models (e.g., Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, LSTM).
   • Use train_test_split to create training and testing datasets.
   • Apply techniques like cross-validation to improve model robustness.

5. Model Evaluation:

   • Evaluate model performance using appropriate metrics (e.g., RMSE, MAE, R2 score).
   • Compare the performance of different models.
   • Visualize the model predictions against actual values.

Libraries and Tools

• pandas
• numpy
• matplotlib
• seaborn
• scikit-learn
• tensorflow and keras (for LSTM model)
• Any other relevant libraries for data processing and model training

Approach

1. Data Retrieval:

   • Collect historical gold price data from a reliable source such as Yahoo Finance, Quandl, or other financial data providers.

2. Data Exploration:

   • Load the data into a DataFrame and inspect the first few rows.
   • Check for missing values and handle them appropriately.
   • Perform statistical analysis to summarize the data.
   • Create visualizations (e.g., line plots, histograms, box plots) to understand data trends and distributions.

3. Feature Engineering:

   • Generate additional features like moving averages, rolling statistics, and lag features.
   • Normalize or standardize the data to improve model performance.
   • Encode categorical features if any.

4. Model Training:

   • Split the data into training and testing sets using train_test_split.
   • Train various machine learning models:
     • Linear Regression
     • Decision Trees
     • Random Forest
     • LSTM (using TensorFlow and Keras)
   • Perform cross-validation to ensure model robustness.

5. Model Evaluation:

   • Evaluate each model using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R2 score.
   • Visualize the predictions of each model against actual gold prices.
   • Select the best-performing model based on evaluation metrics.

Tasks

• [ ] Collect historical gold price data.
• [ ] Perform exploratory data analysis (EDA).
• [ ] Conduct feature engineering.
• [ ] Normalize or standardize the data.
• [ ] Split the data into training and testing sets.
• [ ] Train machine learning models (Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, LSTM).
• [ ] Perform cross-validation.
• [ ] Evaluate model performance using RMSE, MAE, and R2 score.
• [ ] Visualize model predictions.
• [ ] Compare the performance of different models.

Additional Information

Use the following libraries to assist with model training and evaluation:

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, cross_val_score
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error, r2_score
import tensorflow as tf
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense, LSTM, Dropout

Expected Outcomes

• A comprehensive analysis of historical gold price data.
• Effective feature engineering to enhance model performance.
• Training and evaluation of multiple machine learning models.
• Selection of the best model for gold price prediction.
• Visualization of model predictions to provide insights.

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[jaibhedia]

Hey! @PRIYANSHU2026 you have been assigned the issue, please start working on it.