Model performance only slightly better than betting on favorites.

jasonchanhku / UFC-MMA-Predictor

A web application built on dash to predict winners of a UFC fight

https://ufcmmapredictor.herokuapp.com/

84 stars 30 forks source link

Model performance only slightly better than betting on favorites. #2

Open losersFocus opened 6 years ago

losersFocus commented 6 years ago

Your current MLP model claims an overall accuracy of 70.4%, which is only slightly better (ca. 2%) than betting only on favorites :(. For reference see the attached figure below, which calculates the chance to predict a fight correctly by only betting on favorites.

grafik

jasonchanhku commented 6 years ago

Note that this changes over time. At the time i started my project, it stated in that link that favourites was only 60%