Some discrepancies when forecasting for low numbers of tickets

[jbrunton]

Forecast lead times for 5 stories for Android Channel Overview, filtering 1 Apr 2015-26 Jun 2015.

With no WIP scale factor:

Likelihood 50% 80% 90% Lead Time 11.3 days 17.1 days 18.3 days

With 0.75 WIP scale factor:

Likelihood 50% 80% 90% Lead Time 8.2 days 11.1 days 13.1 days

Also against Android Kanban board, filtering 1 Jan 2016-1 Apr 2016.

With no WIP scale factor:

Likelihood 50% 80% 90% Lead Time 13.9 days 24.1 days 38.4 days

With 0.5 WIP scale factor:

Likelihood 50% 80% 90% Lead Time 16.7 days 22.8 days 26.1 days