A few thoughts about strategy

[bjorn-haslev]

I spend a while discovering this tool, including backtesting. But after real trading experiment - everything is not so easy as it looks. There is no working way to place a bid depending on the current ration. Because this ration often changes dramatically exactly in the last block before lock timeout. Thus, all strategies based on ratio are failing when it comes to real bidding (unlike backtesting). At first time I was also exited about backtested results based on ratio strategy. But later I realised the trick when moved to live testing. So, there is only one profitable way, based on some technical analysis or some kind of external trading data. If someone knows it - let us know)

[jeffersonlicet]

You are right, also there is a possibility of being a 50/50 chance game.

[stefangabos]

i did test my bot live, using real money, and by listening to the pending transaction i have a fairly accurate knowledge of how the ratios will turn out to be - basically, in the mempool i can see 95% (it's just a guesstimate, obviously) of the transactions that are about to go through in the last block before closing. nevertheless, betting always with the majority (and accounting for a few mistakes here and there by not having the exact picture of who's betting what) i found out that it's more on the loosing side because even though the win rate was around 60%, the fees I paid were more than the money I made, and also where the majority goes there will be less of a payout, obviously.

therefore, here are some of my findings so far:

• no need to bet every time as the fees will drain your wallet
• stop one or two rounds after a loss
• you could keep track of closing prices and devise a strategy where the more price it goes in one direction the more likely it is to reverse in the next trade
• copy-trade the profitable and active addresses (i am trying this one right now but more often than not i am unable to send my transaction in as these addresses are betting in the last possible block before closing time)

that's what i got so far, i will add ideas here as i go

[guillemonzo]

Hi @stefangabos! I'm also trying to copy-trade but using only BSC scan is quite difficult. Did you use some kind of visualization tool? It would be great to monitor in real-time the actions of profitable addresses who claim often.

[stefangabos]

i gave up shortly after because i didn't have time to focus more on it but i think it is possible to win and it doesn't have to do with following what others are doing. i tried my hand at manually watching the charts and placing bets based on that and worked really well (i used schiff pitchfork to have the levels). the downside is that it is very time consuming and stressful because of having to be always glued to the screen. but it was fun. i still think it can be automated but it's not about what the others are doing as that doesn't have any impact on price movement