Summary
The objective of this ticket is to build up a system that predicts each team's chances of making worlds for the current/upcoming season based on their historical results and their path to championships.
Prediction
Districts advancement would be computed via Monte Carlo based on events remaining to determine district championships attendance / final district points / awards.
Regional advancement would be computed by simulating all remaining regional events and compiling the outcomes for each team
Modeling
We could use Elo or some sort of Bayesian update model to build a system for predicting event results. We can lean on blue banner history at first since that is the theme of this website.
Database Updates
The database will need to be updated to include additional team modeling information (if any additional information is needed besides blue banners).
UI Updates
The UI needs to be updated for each team to include the predictive stats. Each event should have a list of favorites to win as well.
Summary The objective of this ticket is to build up a system that predicts each team's chances of making worlds for the current/upcoming season based on their historical results and their path to championships.
Prediction Districts advancement would be computed via Monte Carlo based on events remaining to determine district championships attendance / final district points / awards. Regional advancement would be computed by simulating all remaining regional events and compiling the outcomes for each team
Modeling We could use Elo or some sort of Bayesian update model to build a system for predicting event results. We can lean on blue banner history at first since that is the theme of this website.
Database Updates The database will need to be updated to include additional team modeling information (if any additional information is needed besides blue banners).
UI Updates The UI needs to be updated for each team to include the predictive stats. Each event should have a list of favorites to win as well.