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jleonard2099 / LHG_ProBB

Lance Haffner Basketball Pro Game
GNU Affero General Public License v3.0
2 stars 0 forks source link

Free Throw Attempts Appears Low #20

Open jleonard2099 opened 1 year ago

jleonard2099 commented 1 year ago

From Brian Wilson at Facebook forums:

The play-in game between Atlanta and Miami had 10 fouls called on Atlanta and 5 on Chicago. Atlanta was 3/5 and Chicago was 7/10 FTs.

Jason, the best I can tell, and I don't play it often, is that teams shoot so few free throws.

jleonard2099 commented 8 months ago

I discovered the SETUPRATINGS routine in the game adjusts FTA's by a value called FTF (Free Throw Frequency???). The adjustments are based on years in the game and the ranges are not meaningful to me (as of now).

Currently I am simulating several seasons to record FTA's and compare to team's actuals. Kind of like Head-to-Head in the game but using a handy spreadsheet.

What I have noticed is a downward trend historically in how many FTA's are made, all within the same time frames spanned by the game code. The shot clock as been 24-seconds the entire duration.

Once the actuals are in, we will be able to see indeed if FTA's are lower than they should be and determine how to adjust.

It is anticipated there is some meaning behind the year ranges and that more work will need done for other year ranges once the pattern is realized (for example, there were known reasons FTA's were so high during that period)

jleonard2099 commented 8 months ago

WOW. Compiling data for more recent years shows a huge gap. Whereas 1989, teams were shooting about 2-3 FGA/Gm less than expected, teams in 2019 were shooting almost 10 FGA / Gm less. Issue confirmed for sure; now to evaluate accuracy of earlier decades and update calculations

jleonard2099 commented 8 months ago

Latest tests of adjusting some of the game's ratings has yielded much more accurate FGA / FTA / etc. for more recent years. More testing is in place to get accurate values for recent years.

From there, research will need done to see what years this new factor / rating should cover.