joemgon
commented
6 years ago Thanks Mike, the NCAA tournament script is interesting and look forward to seeing it.
Open michaelpawlus opened 6 years ago
joemgon
commented
6 years ago Thanks Mike, the NCAA tournament script is interesting and look forward to seeing it.
Right now I'm getting historical results and rankings. I have all results and the current rankings. I'm working on getting rankings for all past years and tallying up how many upsets there were.
The World Cup doesn't have many surprises IIRC so the prediction trick will be to try to guess the few that happen.
After this I'll convert a script that is fairly popular with the NCAA tournament to get a baseline model using rankings to predict odds. Then we could modify those by looking at trends (who's ratings are going up/down) as well as using your FIFA data to make adjustments based on the form of the current squad.
One thing that I remember from NCAA is that productivity and tempo really count for a lot. So, if a team is able to slow a game down, keep possession, and are productive with chances then they have higher odds of beating a "better" team in a one-off situation. Seems obvious but we will have to see which FIFA features to use to try to guess which teams can do this. Way different game of course so there may be other things to consider as well.
In any case, after these next few things, I think we will have enough data to get started and some baseline predictions so then we can just make tweaks and adjustments for the next couple weeks.
Let me know if you have anything you are working on right at this second. Otherwise that will be a good time to jump in and we can start thinking of a strategy for using the data we have accumulated.