Open julievano opened 5 years ago
Responsibility: PI Vano will lead work supported by team.
This might be something we query a preliminary group of advisors about (e.g. the people that wrote letters of support, people like Margaret Medellin, and others that WWA could suggest).
Task 2. Map decision-relevant extremes and affected communities. We will use datasets collected in Task 1 to map characteristics for understanding climate risk in communities that are dependent on snowpack, focusing on snowpack and streamflow extremes. These maps will be combined with demographics to identify at-risk communities. Decision-relevant extremes may include metrics like: summertime snowpack magnitudes, years with snow disappearance before a certain date, 7-day low flow within a 10-day return period (7Q10), multi-year streamflow yields lower than 90% of observed, 48-hour precipitation extremes, fire risks, and changes in runoff centroid. NCAR team members have been exploring similar user-relevant measures in collaboration with water managers and planners at the US Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation that provides a helpful starting point (e.g., Ekstrom et al., in preparation). Extremes will be identified as times above a threshold near the upper ends of the range of observed values. Some measures will involve accumulating the contributing upstream areas to allow spatial results and subsequent vulnerabilities to be more community-specific. The team will explore a range of different metrics and get feedback from the communities to understand which resonate most with their needs.