Sorry, we discussed this before but I forgot. S(t) (1-cumulative_cases) is a transformed parameter, so we can't directly put a probabilistic statement on it. But do you know of any other simple method to do it, @karimn? Looking at another country where S(t) tends to 0 made me think of how nice it would be to have a control over S(t) at particular t's. And we even have data for this!
Sorry, we discussed this before but I forgot. S(t) (1-
cumulative_cases) is a transformed parameter, so we can't directly put a probabilistic statement on it. But do you know of any other simple method to do it, @karimn? Looking at another country where S(t) tends to 0 made me think of how nice it would be to have a control over S(t) at particular t's. And we even have data for this!