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kunzaatko / pm_mode

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Explore new betting strategies #13

Open Many98 opened 3 years ago

Many98 commented 3 years ago

First proposed strategy is based on work of H.Rue and O.Salvesen Predicting and Retrospective Analysis of Soccer Matches in a League.

Second one is Kelly criterion.

Many98 commented 3 years ago

Current betting strategy seems to be trying to maximize expected profit but it does not take into account minimizing risk of ruin.

Many98 commented 3 years ago

I have tried very simple approach to bet on opps which have positive E[profit] i.e. E[profit] > 1.05 but at the same time satisfying the condition E[profit] < some_limit. Using Elo as base predictive model this approach yielded 8000 final profit. The Poisson model was terminated at (2009-07-09: available: 6110.61, invested 0.00, total 6110.61) because the more data there was, the longer the model took to fit.