kuriwaki / cvr_harvard-mit_scripts

6 stars 1 forks source link

[GA] Candler County #314

Closed kuriwaki closed 2 months ago

kuriwaki commented 2 months ago

Small county of ~4400 voters. Cannot release; Need to ask clerk.

The raw data (a 1/0 type of file) contains 4384 votes for Trump but official results say tit should be 3133, so that's a 40% overcount. The official returns report only one "precinct"" in the whole county - JACK STRICKLAND COMM CENTER whereas the cvr data distinguishes between different numbers in that center (e.g. 179-JSCC), so not much leverage there. Vote method (recorded in the CVR) cannot explain the exact discrepancy, BUT note if we take the baltz data as correct, the CVR then is massively overcounting election-day votes -- 2142 (cvr) vs. 638 (baltz).

It would be crazy if the county failed to count and report 1500 eday votes. But I downloaded the GA voterfile (https://mvp.sos.ga.gov/s/voter-history-files), which I think is a snapshot, and it seems like an eday turnout of 638 is about right.

My guess is that the eday vote in the CVR contains "test" runs or intermediate snapshots of a voter filling in their ballot, but I cannot get the file's dominion fields (countinggroup, ballottype, tabulatornum, batchid, recordid) to produce the right number of voters.

If fixing, MEDSL should change ANN P.D. GLEASON's district to 158 instead of 148. As well as the undervote in district 148. There is no district 148 in candler county, and harvard gets that right.