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kyleskom / NBA-Machine-Learning-Sports-Betting

NBA sports betting using machine learning
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data interpretation #397

Closed egamxmx closed 5 months ago

egamxmx commented 5 months ago

I have the following result:

image resultado-1

Here it shows the Bucks in green with 73%, however on the Kelly scale it says that EV: 66.3 towards the opposing team

rajp84 commented 5 months ago

Betting on Bucks with -700 odds is not worth it... over time you would lose money, so the expected value is negative.

If however, you take the underdogs, the Grizzlies, with those odds (+520), and a 27% chance of winning with this model, then over time the EV is positive.

In this specific example, the Grizzlies won 113 to 110, so you would have made nice bank.

(if you did end up losing, then you would have only lost a small fraction of your bankroll)

egamxmx commented 5 months ago

thank you very much for the information, greetings