Dictation: How The U.S. Is Stalling A Recession

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2iVaBsaE5s

brace (oneself) for (something)

If you brace yourself for something unpleasant or difficult, you prepare yourself for it.
ex) "Wall Street remains braced for a recession."
ex) "The city was braced for a major snowstorm, with residents stocking up on supplies."

be poised to

be positioned or ready to take a particular action
ex) "Consumers are poised to slow down their spending."
ex) "The player is poised to break the record for most goals scored in a season."

in part

You use "in part" to indicate that something exists or happens to some extent but not completely.
ex) "That's in part because consumers are poised to slow down their spending."
ex) "The company's decision to invest in renewable energy was driven, in part, by a commitment to environmental sustainability."

deteriorate

악화하다.
ex) "We're not seeing things deteriorating at a really rapid phase but the slow down is there."

at a [rapid/slow/fast/steady/...] pace

OO한 속도로
ex) "The technology industry is evolving at a rapid pace, with ChatGPT."
ex) "The construction project is moving forward, but at a slow pace due to unforeseen delays."

materialized

become a reality
ex) "A recession may never materialize if consumers keep spending."
ex) "The long-awaited deal finally materialized after months of negotiations."

hold up

maintaining stability or resilience
ex) "Despite the market volatility, the company's stock price continues to hold up well."
ex) "Despite the setbacks, their friendship has held up over the years and remains strong."

rein in

통제하다. (rein: 고삐. 말의 고삐를 당기듯이 통재함)
ex) "Some people are reining in their budgets."
ex) "The company needs to rein in its excessive spending to improve its financial stability."

aloof

being distant, uninvolved, or emotionally detached from others or a situation
ex) "Despite attending the party, he remained aloof and didn't interact much with the other guests."

it's either A or B. It's either A. Or it's B.

두개의 옵션을 제시할 때 쓰는 표현
ex) "For dinner, it's either pizza or pasta."
ex) Tom: "I want to be famous." Jane: "Look. It's either got to be sport or it's got to be music."

up to

engaged in or involved with certain activities or actions
ex) "I haven't seen her in a while, I wonder what she's up to these days."
ex) "He's always up to something interesting; you never know what project he's working on."

잘 안들리는 표현

an all-time high / all-time low

highest/lowest recorded level
ex) "The nation-wide credit card debt may soon reach 10 trillion dollars. an all-time high."
ex) "Attendance at the music festival reached an all-time high this year, with record-breaking ticket sales."
ex) "The unemployment rate hit an all-time low, indicating a strong job market."

run into headwinds (headwinds: 맞바람)

face difficulties or obstacles that impede progress or success
ex) "As consumers run into headwinds, other parts of the economy are flashing warning signs too."
ex) "The company's expansion plans are running into headwinds due to regulatory changes in the industry."

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

필요할 때마다 한도 내에서 받을 수 있는 대출 상품 (참고: http://www.koreatimes.com/article/20160524/989537)
ex) "These HELOC rates are holding steady. Is it time to get one?"

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

1

wall street remains braced for a recession eventually. that's in part because consumers are poised slow down their spending.

march was really a big month in terms of spending slow down but it's not just bad news. we're not seeing things deteriorating at a really rapid phase but the slow down is there

but a recession may never materialize if consumers keep spending

i continue to think it's possible this time is really different. and the reason is.. just so much access demand really in labor market.

i mean it's been amazing how resillient in a way the consumer has been to this inflationary shock.

and the consumer is still very strong they're just spending differently.

people are still spending and that has been important to the economy.

we've been talking about the possilbility of reccession what felt like, very very long time. and for now to now, global economy is holding up.

but some people are raining in their budgets.

brace (oneself) for (something)

If you brace yourself for something unpleasant or difficult, you prepare yourself for it.
ex) "Wall Street remains braced for a recession."
ex) "The city was braced for a major snowstorm, with residents stocking up on supplies."

be poised to

be positioned or ready to take a particular action
ex) "Consumers are poised to slow down their spending."
ex) "The player is poised to break the record for most goals scored in a season."

in part

You use "in part" to indicate that something exists or happens to some extent but not completely.
ex) "That's in part because consumers are poised to slow down their spending."
ex) "The company's decision to invest in renewable energy was driven, in part, by a commitment to environmental sustainability."

deteriorate

악화하다.
ex) "We're not seeing things deteriorating at a really rapid phase but the slow down is there."

at a [rapid/slow/fast/steady/...] pace

OO한 속도로
ex) "The technology industry is evolving at a rapid pace, with ChatGPT."
ex) "The construction project is moving forward, but at a slow pace due to unforeseen delays."

materialized

become a reality
ex) "A recession may never materialize if consumers keep spending."
ex) "The long-awaited deal finally materialized after months of negotiations."

hold up

maintaining stability or resilience
ex) "Despite the market volatility, the company's stock price continues to hold up well."
ex) "Despite the setbacks, their friendship has held up over the years and remains strong."

rein in

통제하다. (rein: 고삐. 말의 고삐를 당기듯이 통재함)
ex) "Some people are reining in their budgets."
ex) "The company needs to rein in its excessive spending to improve its financial stability."

next: https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=58

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

2

i don't like to save my money. that was part of problem. i like to spend money. i feel like a lot of people might have similar experience especially we've been a consumer economy.

how much longer can consumer keep the US economy afloot? many americans are reworking their budget as inflation stays hot.

last year i living in arizona i was paying rent and i was getting frustated becasue my income was i feel like it was disappearing i feel like i wansn't progress on my saving's goal i feel how i'm supposed not be a renter if i can't save enough to not be a renter any more that was one of contribuging factors me moving back home to california where income is actually higher and cost of living is higher but because i am living at home, i am saving on that.

the reality is that as prices are rising, the things that you have to pay for, the every expense, your rent, your mortgage, utilities, food, all of that are increasing and increasing dramatically in some cases.

aloof

being distant, uninvolved, or emotionally detached from others or a situation
ex) "Despite attending the party, he remained aloof and didn't interact much with the other guests."

next) https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=120

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

3

in a feburary 2023 survey, four out of 5 consumer said that they are tightening budgets by buying less in bulk or shopping around more often for better deals. these sorts of micro decision have a huge influence on the pace of economic growth.

consumer spending represents more than half of the economy. it's close to 70 percents. if consumer spending is strong, that along is generally speaking enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession.

in EU, it's less. Exports are much more important driver of economy than here in US and then we look at China, and parts of Asia, and again manufacturing base is much more important. yes, US is very much stand out in terms of the importance of consumer overall economic health.

the strong consumer spending may be keeping inflation hot. in March 2021, the headlline inflation rate shot past the federal reserve's target of 2%.

fast forward to Apr 2023, inflation remains close to 5% annually. the escalating prices are only just beginning to slow people down.

keep A from B

= prevent A from B

ex) Strong consumer spending is enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession.
ex) Regular exercise and a healthy lifestyle can help keep you from getting sick.

shoot past / shot past

= significantly exceed or surpass

ex) In March 2021, the headlline inflation rate shot past the federal reserve's target of 2%.
ex) The student's exam score shot past the average.

next: https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=188

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

4

consumers still have financial buffer even when spending is slowing, the process might be gradual because they still have money in their bank account.

at the end of 2023 1st quarter, gross domestic product grew at 1.1%. while not negative, this growth isn't strong enough to rule out the possibility of recession. something is occurring underneath the hood here.

people are shifting what they buy. people spend big on physical goods during the lock-down but the services are now committing strongest spending

when you looking at where spending is taking place particularly, as you look at traveling, leisure and entertainment, that is a higher income consumer.

According to McKinsey, many people remain ready to splurge on experience. spending in other categories, like restaurants and apparel are up too it's all absolute necessities.

i am feeling it when it comes to food which is so weird for me because i've never concerned myself how much food cost

you know what's drives consumer spending well, it's either it see your income or your access to debt pressure from all three factors, it's going to make... even if we don't get recession it's quite painful at many many households in America

it's either A or B. It's either A. Or it's B.

두개의 옵션을 제시할 때 쓰는 표현
ex) "For dinner, it's either pizza or pasta."
ex) Tom: "I want to be famous." Jane: "Look. It's either got to be sport or it's got to be music."

up to

engaged in or involved with certain activities or actions
ex) "I haven't seen her in a while, I wonder what she's up to these days."
ex) "He's always up to something interesting; you never know what project he's working on."

잘 안들리는 표현

https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=264

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

5

Economists believe that people with less money may turn to credit to cover expenses in this economy.

i think it's really scary how much people are using credit to be able to afford what they need to have everyday.

that sentiment shows up this data set from the BofA instutute.

we care about credit utilization how leverage is a consumer right are they really borrowing to finance the spending or they spending the money they already have through the pandemic, Americans were using less credit. But the trend is starting to reverse. at the end of 2022, the average household had nearly $10,000 in credit card debt.

analysists believe that nation-wide credit card debt may soon reach 10 trillion dollars. an all time high.

putting everyday expenses on credit is so very dangerous because we know that as the interest rate has been rising, so have rates of credit card so is your interest of your bank on that money you are indeed borrowing to pay for everyday expenses.

an all-time high / all-time low

highest/lowest recorded level
ex) "The nation-wide credit card debt may soon reach 10 trillion dollars. an all-time high."
ex) "Attendance at the music festival reached an all-time high this year, with record-breaking ticket sales."
ex) "The unemployment rate hit an all-time low, indicating a strong job market."

next: https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=316

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

6

credit card interest rates have never been higher, topping 20% nationwide in Feb. these interest rates are up and down depending on the central bank's federal fund rate.

and these rates are generally only charged to customers who carry a monthly balance. as consumers run into headwinds, other parts of the economy are flashing warning signs too.

there's been a lot of speculations since the recent failures of couple of large banks this could spark a reduction in credit

you know banks are much more nervous there's been a bit of deposit slice in some of these small regional banks this combination of high borrowing cost and reduced access of credit this double pinch the movement if you like on the household and the coorporate sets of america is what could be really really concerning and damaging for the growth perspectives.

while the average consumers are doing well, the economy is spilitted this demand is driven by strong growth of assets, particularily housing. in the US, home prices has risen nationwide by more than 30% since 2020 roughly 2/3 of US households own a home. economists believe that this increase can amplify the spending

if you do in fact have equity in your home you may potentially be in a market for home equity line of credit. this is ability to borrow against your home value.

but there are risks at home equity lines of credit too, especially depending on the path of interest rates.

run into headwinds (headwinds: 맞바람)

face difficulties or obstacles that impede progress or success
ex) "As consumers run into headwinds, other parts of the economy are flashing warning signs too."
ex) "The company's expansion plans are running into headwinds due to regulatory changes in the industry."

Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC)

필요할 때마다 한도 내에서 받을 수 있는 대출 상품 (참고: http://www.koreatimes.com/article/20160524/989537)
ex) "These HELOC rates are holding steady. Is it time to get one?"

next: https://youtu.be/T2iVaBsaE5s?t=404

hyunsik-yoon commented 1 year ago

Questions

Are you interested in watching videos related in economics? In what area?
Do you know why Korean currency rate is so high?
Does high inflation affect you?
Does high inflation affect you, especially your buying habit?
Considering the recession, what do you need to prepare?

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