ld-archer / E_FEM

This is the repository for the English version of the Future Elderly Model, originally developed at the Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Microsimulation.
MIT License
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Improve mortality model #119

Closed ld-archer closed 1 year ago

ld-archer commented 1 year ago

Currently chronic diseases and functional limitations have been removed from the mortality model to focus on loneliness and social isolation. I need to add these back and make sure nothing breaks the good work I've just done.

ld-archer commented 1 year ago

Minimal

Call:
glm(formula = form.mort.ls, family = binomial(link = "probit"), 
    data = trans2)

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-1.4192  -0.2913  -0.1587  -0.0902   3.7783  

Coefficients:
             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept) -4.265387   0.310281 -13.747  < 2e-16 ***
male1        0.242307   0.021970  11.029  < 2e-16 ***
white        0.230107   0.069787   3.297 0.000976 ***
hsless1      0.085600   0.023272   3.678 0.000235 ***
college1    -0.026129   0.039422  -0.663 0.507452    
l2age65l     0.038887   0.005140   7.566 3.85e-14 ***
l2age6574    0.042725   0.004040  10.576  < 2e-16 ***
l2age75p     0.053390   0.002293  23.284  < 2e-16 ***
l2lnly1     -0.883458   0.030147 -29.305  < 2e-16 ***
l2lnly2     -0.772954   0.035671 -21.669  < 2e-16 ***
l2lnly3     -0.570262   0.061293  -9.304  < 2e-16 ***
l2sociso1   -0.227997   0.036719  -6.209 5.32e-10 ***
l2sociso2   -0.154433   0.033502  -4.610 4.03e-06 ***
l2sociso3   -0.051948   0.039794  -1.305 0.191752    
l2sociso4   -0.015867   0.044090  -0.360 0.718935    
l2sociso5    0.042965   0.062694   0.685 0.493140    
l2sociso6    0.221230   0.166625   1.328 0.184274    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 21723  on 54011  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 16242  on 53995  degrees of freedom
  (5657 observations deleted due to missingness)
AIC: 16276

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7

Final

Call:
glm(formula = form.mort.test, family = binomial(link = "probit"), 
    data = trans2)

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-1.6907  -0.2426  -0.1319  -0.0783   3.8889  

Coefficients:
             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept) -3.928007   0.395789  -9.924  < 2e-16 ***
male1        0.256070   0.027044   9.469  < 2e-16 ***
white        0.199304   0.090253   2.208 0.027224 *  
hsless1      0.056567   0.027749   2.039 0.041500 *  
college1     0.009276   0.046181   0.201 0.840800    
l2age65l     0.029290   0.005934   4.936 7.97e-07 ***
l2age6574    0.030629   0.004810   6.368 1.91e-10 ***
l2age75p     0.052990   0.002873  18.443  < 2e-16 ***
l2lnly1     -0.660823   0.033983 -19.446  < 2e-16 ***
l2lnly2     -0.584526   0.038524 -15.173  < 2e-16 ***
l2sociso1   -0.285226   0.170916  -1.669 0.095155 .  
l2sociso2   -0.189557   0.169426  -1.119 0.263219    
l2sociso3   -0.128757   0.169849  -0.758 0.448411    
l2sociso4   -0.095824   0.170748  -0.561 0.574660    
l2sociso5   -0.068575   0.176403  -0.389 0.697467    
l2cancre     0.525151   0.035226  14.908  < 2e-16 ***
l2diabe      0.134391   0.037594   3.575 0.000350 ***
l2hearte     0.299084   0.027658  10.814  < 2e-16 ***
l2demene     0.462141   0.070762   6.531 6.54e-11 ***
l2lunge      0.394924   0.038790  10.181  < 2e-16 ***
l2stroke     0.177838   0.042637   4.171 3.03e-05 ***
l2smokev     0.092029   0.030093   3.058 0.002227 ** 
l2smoken     0.184679   0.049238   3.751 0.000176 ***
l2smokef     0.001006   0.003064   0.328 0.742762    
l2alcfreq1  -0.142315   0.045986  -3.095 0.001970 ** 
l2alcfreq2  -0.295976   0.086753  -3.412 0.000646 ***
l2alcfreq3  -0.224907   0.062297  -3.610 0.000306 ***
l2alcfreq5  -0.205366   0.057237  -3.588 0.000333 ***
l2alcfreq6  -0.140310   0.065326  -2.148 0.031726 *  
l2alcfreq7  -0.075171   0.053812  -1.397 0.162435    
l2alcfreq8  -0.034031   0.045667  -0.745 0.456141    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 15390  on 47820  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 11409  on 47790  degrees of freedom
  (11848 observations deleted due to missingness)
AIC: 11471

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7