from robertM:
What would be at least conceptually more straightforward, if not computationally–that is, the scheme I would try to implement if I weren’t too lazy and/or busy–would be to model “luck” as the distance of the actual result from the median result. So if I’m attacking with 3 dice + focus against 2 naked dice, the distribution looks like this (ignoring the difference between hits and crits, for a moment). The median and mode are both 2 hits, so if that’s how much damage I do for that “attack set”, my luck is running average. If I do 3 damage I’ve done 1 extra damage over the expected/typical roll, and “luck” tilts my way by 1; if I miss, I’m now 2 damage behind the expected roll, and “luck” tilts toward my opponent by 2. - See more at: http://teamcovenant.com/sozin/2014/03/10/lady-luck-a-web-based-vassal-x-wing-stats-calculator/#sthash.RJlWBolk.dpuf
from robertM: What would be at least conceptually more straightforward, if not computationally–that is, the scheme I would try to implement if I weren’t too lazy and/or busy–would be to model “luck” as the distance of the actual result from the median result. So if I’m attacking with 3 dice + focus against 2 naked dice, the distribution looks like this (ignoring the difference between hits and crits, for a moment). The median and mode are both 2 hits, so if that’s how much damage I do for that “attack set”, my luck is running average. If I do 3 damage I’ve done 1 extra damage over the expected/typical roll, and “luck” tilts my way by 1; if I miss, I’m now 2 damage behind the expected roll, and “luck” tilts toward my opponent by 2. - See more at: http://teamcovenant.com/sozin/2014/03/10/lady-luck-a-web-based-vassal-x-wing-stats-calculator/#sthash.RJlWBolk.dpuf