Open lhaze opened 7 years ago
Entry data:
AoD
DoD
Let's take the DoD problem first. Here are some rough thoughts about the model of the problem:
population(t + 1) = population(t) * (1 - pass_away_rate(t)) + real_growth(t) + migration(t)
real_growth(t) = natural_growth(t) * enfant_survavibility_factor(t)
natural_growth(t) = alive_population(t) * mortality_rate(t) * wraith_turn_factor(t)
enfant_survavibility_factor(t) = 1 - enfant_oblivion_rate(t) - enfant_decorpsing_rate(t)
pass_away_rate(t) = senior_oblivion_rate(t) + senior_ascension_rate(t) + senior_decorpsing_rate(t)
For more actual work on the model, look at #7
t (year) | alive_population(t) |
---|---|
1500 | 6 500 |
1550 | 9 000 |
1564 | 10 000 |
1595 | 20 000 |
1624 | 48 000 |
1700 | 39 000 |
1792 | 120 000 |
1800 | 63 400 |
1810 | 78 000 [2] |
1830 | 139 700 |
1850 | 163 600 |
1864 | 223 000 |
1882 | 383 000 |
1897 | 683 692 |
1899 | 645 848 |
1900 | 686 000 |
1901 | 711 988 |
1914 | 884 500 |
1921 | 936 713 |
1925 | 1 003 000 |
1931 | 1 179 500 |
1938 | 1 265 372 |
1939 | 1 289 000 |
1941 | 1 351 800 |
1943 | 1 009 007 |
1945 | 422 000 |
1946 | 478 755 |
1950 | 822 036 |
1955 | 1 000 577 |
1960 | 1 139 189 |
1961 | 1 171 400 |
1962 | 1 189 600 |
1963 | 1 221 900 |
1964 | 1 241 000 |
1965 | 1 252 558 |
1966 | 1 267 800 |
1967 | 1 266 700 |
1968 | 1 278 800 |
1969 | 1 288 400 |
1970 | 1 315 648 |
1971 | 1 326 200 |
1972 | 1 355 900 |
1973 | 1 387 800 |
1974 | 1 410 387 |
1975 | 1 436 122 |
1976 | 1 463 400 |
1977 | 1 532 100 |
1978 | 1 552 300 |
1979 | 1 576 600 |
1980 | 1 596 073 |
Source [1] Let's use linear approximation for the intervals. Seems reasonable close for this.
How many Restless are there in the Necropolis of Warsaw?
Actually, there are two questions:
AoD) What is the age of death of how many wraiths across the population of Necropolis? AoD alters demeanor & nature of wraiths' psyche & shadow.
DoD) What is the date of death of how many wraiths? DoD defines culture context of a character and certain aspects of his/her social position.
Both questions share the same demographic model of getting to the Shadowlands, migrations & Ascension/Oblivion/decorpsing and differs in entry data.
Sources: