lhaze / data-science-playground

Let's have some fun with a bunch of libs & approaches.
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how: formulate the problem #1

Open lhaze opened 7 years ago

lhaze commented 7 years ago

How many Restless are there in the Necropolis of Warsaw?

Actually, there are two questions:

AoD) What is the age of death of how many wraiths across the population of Necropolis? AoD alters demeanor & nature of wraiths' psyche & shadow.

DoD) What is the date of death of how many wraiths? DoD defines culture context of a character and certain aspects of his/her social position.

Both questions share the same demographic model of getting to the Shadowlands, migrations & Ascension/Oblivion/decorpsing and differs in entry data.

Sources:

  1. Demography of Warsaw (Wikipedia)
  2. Historical demography of Poland (academic pdf)
  3. Births & mortality (educational materials pdf)
lhaze commented 7 years ago

Entry data:

AoD

DoD

Let's take the DoD problem first. Here are some rough thoughts about the model of the problem:

For more actual work on the model, look at #7

lhaze commented 7 years ago
t (year) alive_population(t)
1500 6 500
1550 9 000
1564 10 000
1595 20 000
1624 48 000
1700 39 000
1792 120 000
1800 63 400
1810 78 000 [2]
1830 139 700
1850 163 600
1864 223 000
1882 383 000
1897 683 692
1899 645 848
1900 686 000
1901 711 988
1914 884 500
1921 936 713
1925 1 003 000
1931 1 179 500
1938 1 265 372
1939 1 289 000
1941 1 351 800
1943 1 009 007
1945 422 000
1946 478 755
1950 822 036
1955 1 000 577
1960 1 139 189
1961 1 171 400
1962 1 189 600
1963 1 221 900
1964 1 241 000
1965 1 252 558
1966 1 267 800
1967 1 266 700
1968 1 278 800
1969 1 288 400
1970 1 315 648
1971 1 326 200
1972 1 355 900
1973 1 387 800
1974 1 410 387
1975 1 436 122
1976 1 463 400
1977 1 532 100
1978 1 552 300
1979 1 576 600
1980 1 596 073

Source [1] Let's use linear approximation for the intervals. Seems reasonable close for this.

lhaze commented 6 years ago

[3] http://www.wilanow-palac.pl/pierwsze_zniszczenie_warszawy_i_jej_odbudowa_po_potopie_1655_1696.html [4] http://whitewolf.wikia.com/wiki/Great_Maelstroms