Closed Inglezos closed 3 years ago
(This may be related to #513. 30 days may not be acceptable for Greece at this time.)
In version 2.16.2-kappa-fu2, delay-30 for Greece did not show negative values. https://gist.github.com/lisphilar/4b889de957bbc3554a13062d531d6e94
Summary
With the current implementation of parameters forecast, sometimes the predicted
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/36845191/103937471-7732d700-5131-11eb-99d0-c692239d450c.png)
Rt
value can become negative if delay is large. For example I tried hardcoded delay of 30 days instead of the recovery period (changed delay to 30 in_fit_create_data()
) and I ran the estimator for Greece. The result was to have a phase with extremely small duration (zero or one day) andRt
to become negative:Codes
Environment