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lizzieinvancouver / ospree

Budbreak review paper database
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Figure our some reasonable scenarios #342

Open lizzieinvancouver opened 4 years ago

lizzieinvancouver commented 4 years ago

for the budburst date ... then check signal on these dates.

MoralesCastilla commented 4 years ago

These are the scenarios I used so far:

1) High chill, long-ish photoperiod, and moderate forcing (regular scenario)

quantile(force.z,0.5)
quantile(chill.z,0.75)
quantile(photo.z,0.75)

2) Low chill, shorter photoperiod, higher forcing (climate change scenario)

quantile(force.z,0.75)
quantile(chill.z,0.5)
quantile(photo.z,0.5)

However, I guess these may not be great as they are hard to interpret. So I was thinking to start working with Ailene's forecasting code (I may bug you, Ailene, if doubts arise) and back-transform values for newdata.

Alternatively, I could use some of the predictions that were made for the budburst ms, and replicate them with a phylogenetic model.

Any other ideas/suggestions are welcome.

AileneKane commented 4 years ago

@MoralesCastilla Please do let me know if you need help understanding my code. you will likely need to pull the new climate data...

lizzieinvancouver commented 4 years ago

@MoralesCastilla @AileneKane ... for ease to get started could we just use some of the +6 C or such estimates from your models Ailene? If this sounds okay, @AileneKane could you list here the estimate numbers to put in for chill, force, photo under a +0 and under a +5 or +6 scenario?

AileneKane commented 4 years ago

@lizzieinvancouver @MoralesCastilla Sure- should I just choose a random location? any preference for a site that has chilling increase vs decrease with the warming scenario?

AileneKane commented 4 years ago

for one of the betpen sites plotted in our manusucript, the chilling values (in Utah units/240) were: 4.91 (without warming), 3.61 (+5) daylength bbdoy= 13.15 hrs sprtemp (force, without warming) = 0.43, 5.43 (+5) Please let me know if you need anything other than that!

MoralesCastilla commented 4 years ago

@AileneKane Thanks Ailene! I'll start working with these and see how it goes.

lizzieinvancouver commented 2 years ago

@MoralesCastilla It seems like we have a path forward that does not need scenarios ... we should discuss and close this if you agree!