refs for phylo paper

[lizzieinvancouver]

Just keeping track of some things ...

ED refs from Cat:

• original ED paper
• new ED paper

I also found this cool paper.

Ailene mentioned we need refs in this paragraph and she is right! @AileneKane We've added what we can, could you help with the last REFS spot and anywhere else you think we need refs?

While ecological forecasting has improved over recent years \citep{dietze2017ecological,lewis2022power}, it remains a challenge to reproduce the high variability observed in responses to date \citep{IPCC:2014sm}. Some of this variability results from the complexity of climate change itself, including regional and seasonal variation in warming that underlies average trends alongside shifts in other climate axes (e.g. precipitation). Much of it, however, is driven by species-specific variation, reflecting evolved differences in species' sensitivities to underlying environmental cues and their interactions, which we know well for only a few well-studied species \citep{chuinearees,ettinger2020}. In the absence of detailed data on individual species, species groupings (e.g., functional groups) have improved ecosystem models \citep{ed2001,griffith2020}, but still capture only a fraction of the important variability (REFS). Improving forecasts, thus, will require models that accurately predict species-level differences in responses to complex environmental change.

[AileneKane]

I think the paragraph (and the whole manuscript) is looking great! One thing I wasn't sure of in reading the above paragraph is- Are we talking about ecological responses generally in this paragraph or focused on phenology responses specifically? If we want phenology specific studies showing that functional traits capture only a fraction of variability in species' responses to the environment, I think this is a good one:

Fuccillo Battle K, Duhon A, Vispo CR, Crimmins TM, Rosenstiel TN, Armstrong‐Davies LL, de Rivera CE. Citizen science across two centuries reveals phenological change among plant species and functional groups in the Northeastern US. Journal of Ecology. 2022 Aug;110(8):1757-74. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13926

[lizzieinvancouver]

@AileneKane Thanks! We're trying to make the opening of the paper as general as possible, so other examples would be great -- but not critical. For now I added what you sent.