heinemannj
commented
1 month ago Most simple prediction approach for EPEX Spot Data values after midnight:
- Simply take the value from the day before
Open heinemannj opened 1 month ago
heinemannj
commented
1 month ago Most simple prediction approach for EPEX Spot Data values after midnight:
heinemannj
commented
1 month ago Day ahead forecast by EMHass:
heinemannj
commented
1 month ago Day ahead forecast by EMHass and custom template sensor finetuning 'EPEX Spot Quantile':
- name: epex_spot_data_net_quantile_forcast
unique_id: epex_spot_data_net_quantile_forcast
#friendly_name: "epex_spot_data_net_quantile_forcast"
# state_class: "total"
state_class: measurement
# unit_of_measurement: "ct/kWh"
icon: mdi:eye
state: >-
{%- set var = namespace(data = []) %}
{%- set var.current_price = states('sensor.epex_spot_data_net_price')|float %}
{%- set var.net_price = state_attr('sensor.epex_spot_data_net_price', 'data') %}
{# Use only EPEX Spot data starting with the actual interval #}
{%- set var.actual_start_time = (now() - timedelta(minutes=(now().minute+1)))|as_timestamp %}
{%- for record in var.net_price if record.start_time|as_timestamp >= var.actual_start_time %}
{%- set var.data = var.data + [record.price_ct_per_kwh] %}
{%- endfor %}
{%- set var.min_price = var.data|min|float %}
{%- set var.max_price = var.data|max|float %}
{%- set var.quantile = ((var.current_price - var.min_price) / (var.max_price - var.min_price))|float %}
{{ var.quantile }}
attributes:
data: >-
{%- set var = namespace(data = []) %}
{%- set var.result = [] %}
{# EPEX Spot data for at least today and after 13:00 CET for tommorrow in addition #}
{# - in 60 min interval #}
{%- set var.net_price = state_attr('sensor.epex_spot_data_net_price', 'data') %}
{%- set var.net_price_last_start_time = var.net_price|map(attribute='start_time')|list|last %}
{%- set var.net_price_array_length = var.net_price|map(attribute='start_time')|list|length %}
{# Solar Forecast for today and tomorrow #}
{# - in 30 min interval #}
{%- set var.solcast = state_attr('sensor.solcast_pv_forecast_prognose_heute', 'detailedForecast') %}
{%- set var.solcast = var.solcast + state_attr('sensor.solcast_pv_forecast_prognose_fur_morgen', 'detailedForecast') %}
{# Check if EPEX Spot data for tomorrow is already available #}
{# - if not available add data from today as an quick and dirty forecast for tomorrow #}
{# - will be overwritten after 13:00 CET with real EPEX Spot data #}
{% if (var.net_price_last_start_time|as_datetime).day < now().day+1 %}
{%- set var.net_price_forcast = var.net_price %}
{% for i in range((var.net_price_array_length-24),var.net_price_array_length) %}
{%- set var.net_price_forcast = var.net_price_forcast +
[{
'start_time': ((var.net_price[i].start_time)|as_timestamp + 86400)|timestamp_local,
'end_time': ((var.net_price[i].end_time)|as_timestamp + 86400)|timestamp_local,
'price_ct_per_kwh': var.net_price[i].price_ct_per_kwh
}] %}
{% endfor %}
{%- set var.net_price = var.net_price_forcast %}
{% endif %}
{# Use only EPEX Spot data starting with the actual interval #}
{%- set var.actual_start_time = (now() - timedelta(minutes=(now().minute+1)))|as_timestamp %}
{# Min/Max for quantile calculation #}
{%- for record in var.net_price if record.start_time|as_timestamp >= var.actual_start_time%}
{%- set var.data = var.data + [record.price_ct_per_kwh] %}
{%- endfor %}
{%- set var.min_price = var.data|min|float %}
{%- set var.max_price = var.data|max|float %}
{# Construct new array putting everthing together #}
{%- for record in var.net_price if record.start_time|as_timestamp >= var.actual_start_time %}
{%- set var.quantile = ((record.price_ct_per_kwh - var.min_price) / (var.max_price - var.min_price))|round(4) %}
{# Optional: Estimation of EPEX Spot price level #}
{% if record.price_ct_per_kwh < 25.0 %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'Very Low (Green)' %}
{% elif record.price_ct_per_kwh < 30.0 %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'Low (Green)' %}
{% elif record.price_ct_per_kwh < 40.0 %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'Neutral (Yellow)' %}
{% elif record.price_ct_per_kwh < 45.0 %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'High (Orange)' %}
{% elif record.price_ct_per_kwh < 50.0 %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'Very High (Red)' %}
{% else %}
{%- set var.price_level = 'Spike (Purple)' %}
{% endif %}
{# Split into 30 min interval #}
{# Solar Forecast is already in in 30 min interval #}
{# - 1. half hour #}
{# - if clause is only necessary for the first iteration to deceide starting the var.result array with 0 or 30 min interval #}
{% if record.start_time|as_timestamp >= (now()|as_timestamp - 1800) %}
{%- set var.start_time = record.start_time %}
{%- set var.end_time = (record.end_time|as_timestamp - 1800)|timestamp_local %}
{%- set var.p_pv = 'N/A' %}
{%- for record in var.solcast if record.period_start|as_timestamp == var.start_time|as_timestamp %}
{%- set var.p_pv = (record.pv_estimate * 1000)|round(0) %}
{%- endfor %}
{%- set var.result = var.result +
[{
'start_time': var.start_time|as_timestamp|timestamp_local,
'end_time': var.end_time|as_timestamp|timestamp_local,
'price_eur_per_kwh': (record.price_ct_per_kwh/100)|round(4),
'price_level': var.price_level,
'quantile': var.quantile,
'p_pv_forecast': var.p_pv,
}] %}
{% endif %}
{# - 2. half hour #}
{%- set var.start_time = (record.start_time|as_timestamp + 1800)|timestamp_local %}
{%- set var.end_time = record.end_time %}
{%- set var.p_pv = 'N/A' %}
{%- for record in var.solcast if record.period_start|as_timestamp == var.start_time|as_timestamp %}
{%- set var.p_pv = (record.pv_estimate * 1000)|round(0) %}
{%- endfor %}
{%- set var.result = var.result +
[{
'start_time': var.start_time|as_timestamp|timestamp_local,
'end_time': var.end_time|as_timestamp|timestamp_local,
'price_eur_per_kwh': (record.price_ct_per_kwh/100)|round(4),
'price_level': var.price_level,
'quantile': var.quantile,
'p_pv_forecast': var.p_pv,
}] %}
{%- endfor %}
{{ var.result }}
availability: >-
{{ (states('sensor.epex_spot_data_net_price')|is_number)
and (states('sensor.solcast_pv_forecast_prognose_heute')|is_number)
and (states('sensor.solcast_pv_forecast_prognose_fur_morgen')|is_number) }}Sensor output:
state_class: measurement
data:
- start_time: "2024-06-04T19:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T19:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.41
price_level: High (Orange)
quantile: 0.7192
p_pv_forecast: 1133
- start_time: "2024-06-04T19:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T20:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.41
price_level: High (Orange)
quantile: 0.7192
p_pv_forecast: 705
- start_time: "2024-06-04T20:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T20:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.4799
price_level: Very High (Red)
quantile: 1
p_pv_forecast: 354
- start_time: "2024-06-04T20:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T21:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.4799
price_level: Very High (Red)
quantile: 1
p_pv_forecast: 147
- start_time: "2024-06-04T21:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T21:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.367
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5467
p_pv_forecast: 47
- start_time: "2024-06-04T21:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T22:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.367
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5467
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-04T22:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T22:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3273
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3874
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-04T22:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T23:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3273
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3874
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-04T23:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-04T23:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2898
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2366
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-04T23:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T00:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2898
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2366
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T00:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T00:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2673
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.146
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T00:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T01:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2673
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.146
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T01:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T01:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2519
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0843
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T01:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T02:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2519
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0843
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T02:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T02:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2526
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0872
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T02:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T03:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2526
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0872
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T03:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T03:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2592
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1135
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T03:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T04:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2592
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1135
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T04:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T04:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2568
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1041
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T04:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T05:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2568
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1041
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T05:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T05:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2843
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2146
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T05:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T06:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2843
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2146
p_pv_forecast: 26
- start_time: "2024-06-05T06:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T06:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3228
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3692
p_pv_forecast: 93
- start_time: "2024-06-05T06:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T07:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3228
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3692
p_pv_forecast: 163
- start_time: "2024-06-05T07:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T07:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3695
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5567
p_pv_forecast: 278
- start_time: "2024-06-05T07:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T08:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3695
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5567
p_pv_forecast: 563
- start_time: "2024-06-05T08:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T08:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.334
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.414
p_pv_forecast: 927
- start_time: "2024-06-05T08:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T09:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.334
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.414
p_pv_forecast: 1484
- start_time: "2024-06-05T09:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T09:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2998
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2765
p_pv_forecast: 2149
- start_time: "2024-06-05T09:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T10:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2998
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2765
p_pv_forecast: 2673
- start_time: "2024-06-05T10:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T10:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2828
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2085
p_pv_forecast: 2987
- start_time: "2024-06-05T10:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T11:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2828
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2085
p_pv_forecast: 3062
- start_time: "2024-06-05T11:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T11:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2734
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1708
p_pv_forecast: 3316
- start_time: "2024-06-05T11:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T12:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2734
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1708
p_pv_forecast: 3745
- start_time: "2024-06-05T12:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T12:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2572
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1056
p_pv_forecast: 4063
- start_time: "2024-06-05T12:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T13:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2572
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1056
p_pv_forecast: 4244
- start_time: "2024-06-05T13:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T13:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2355
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0185
p_pv_forecast: 4288
- start_time: "2024-06-05T13:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T14:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2355
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0.0185
p_pv_forecast: 4264
- start_time: "2024-06-05T14:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T14:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2309
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0
p_pv_forecast: 4195
- start_time: "2024-06-05T14:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T15:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2309
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0
p_pv_forecast: 4105
- start_time: "2024-06-05T15:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T15:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2354
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0.018
p_pv_forecast: 3841
- start_time: "2024-06-05T15:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T16:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2354
price_level: Very Low (Green)
quantile: 0.018
p_pv_forecast: 3442
- start_time: "2024-06-05T16:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T16:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2741
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1734
p_pv_forecast: 2946
- start_time: "2024-06-05T16:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T17:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2741
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.1734
p_pv_forecast: 2365
- start_time: "2024-06-05T17:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T17:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2953
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2587
p_pv_forecast: 1700
- start_time: "2024-06-05T17:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T18:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.2953
price_level: Low (Green)
quantile: 0.2587
p_pv_forecast: 1121
- start_time: "2024-06-05T18:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T18:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3247
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3766
p_pv_forecast: 687
- start_time: "2024-06-05T18:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T19:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3247
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3766
p_pv_forecast: 570
- start_time: "2024-06-05T19:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T19:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3507
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.4811
p_pv_forecast: 459
- start_time: "2024-06-05T19:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T20:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3507
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.4811
p_pv_forecast: 335
- start_time: "2024-06-05T20:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T20:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3851
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.6194
p_pv_forecast: 243
- start_time: "2024-06-05T20:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T21:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3851
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.6194
p_pv_forecast: 174
- start_time: "2024-06-05T21:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T21:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3876
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.6296
p_pv_forecast: 82
- start_time: "2024-06-05T21:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T22:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3876
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.6296
p_pv_forecast: 4
- start_time: "2024-06-05T22:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T22:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.368
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5505
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T22:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T23:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.368
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.5505
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T23:00:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-05T23:30:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3257
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3809
p_pv_forecast: 0
- start_time: "2024-06-05T23:30:00+02:00"
end_time: "2024-06-06T00:00:00+02:00"
price_eur_per_kwh: 0.3257
price_level: Neutral (Yellow)
quantile: 0.3809
p_pv_forecast: 0
icon: mdi:eye
friendly_name: epex_spot_data_net_quantile_forcast
Actual quantile calculation window is the actual day (00:00 - 23:00).
For battery optimazation strategie
it really make sense to have a quantile calculation window for the next 24Hours in addition.
Legend:
Weather: DWD Integration (Deutscher Wetter Dienst)
WW: myVaillant Integration (Warm Water Heating)
Battery: Huawei Solar Integration (for Battery SOC)
Battery FCST: EMHass AddOn (for Battery SOC Forecast [16:00 - 16:00])
House: Template Sensor (for House Load)
House FCST: EMHass AddOn (for House Load Forecast [16:00 - 16:00])
Grid: Huawei Solar Integration (for Grid Import/Export)
Grid FCST: EMHass AddOn (for Grid Import/Export Forecast [16:00 - 16:00])
Solar: Huawei Solar Integration (for Solar Production)
Solar FCST: SolCast Integration (for Solar Production Forecasts [00:00 - 23:00])
EPEX Spot (EPEX Spot Data Integration)
EPEX Spot (Net) (EPEX Spot Data Integration)
EPEX Spot Quantile (EPEX Spot Data Integration)
I'm with Tibber - but your Integration is much more reliable than Tibber Integration!!!