manifoldmarkets / manifold

Manifold Markets: A market for every question
https://manifold.markets
MIT License
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[FR] Reflective latent variables #1362

Open tailcalled opened 1 year ago

tailcalled commented 1 year ago

It would be nice to have latent variables, as this could make the markets more informative and usable for high-level abstract questions. I wrote a basic description of latent variables here. I am open to providing help with latent variable math and advice about the best latent variable models to use, including further clarification on how they work. I would even be tempted to try to implement a PR for Manifold to add latent variables, but I am not familiar with the code base, so it would probably take more time than I have; but I can probably write some code that handles the math for the core scoring of latent variable predictions, if desired.

tailcalled commented 1 year ago

Here is a mockup in case that makes it clearer: https://files.onlinetests.me/lvar.html

tailcalled commented 1 year ago

Latent variables for prediction markets: motivation, technical guide, and design considerations