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manifoldmarkets / manifold

Manifold Markets: A market for every question
https://manifold.markets
MIT License
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[FR] Early partial resolution for multiple choice markets #1955

Open bcbernardo opened 1 year ago

bcbernardo commented 1 year ago

A few multiple choice markets (like this and this) ask which of multiple, non mutually exclusive events will happen until a given date.

Currently, the probabilities in these market usually go a bit weird once the first few of the events happen: the respective options become predictably inflated, but not always equal among all events that happened - and, most importantly, their probabilities trade far below 100%, since people are still trading among the not-yet-confirmed options.

It would be nice if the creators of such markets could "freeze" trading for options related to events that have already happen, while waiting to see which of the remaining options will still prove to be right. Ideally, this could be paired with some sort of early, partial resolution for the market that rewards traders that anticipated the correct options with foresight.

mxxun commented 12 months ago

Another, possibly easier use-case would be mutually-exclusive multiple-choice markets whose outcomes can decidedly fail to happen, e.g. first occurence or value of monotonous function markets.