markjrieke / 2024-potus

repo for constructing a 2024 presidential election forecast
MIT License
45 stars 6 forks source link

remove $\beta_s$ as parameter #28

Open markjrieke opened 1 month ago

markjrieke commented 1 month ago

currently, $\mu_{s,d} = \alpha_s + \betas + \beta{s,d}$, where $\alpha_s$ is passed in as data from the prior. Probably better to remove $\betas$ whole cloth, since that's basically captured by $\beta{s,d} | d=D$ and can cause the forecast to jump around when given few polls (easier for the model to adjust $\betas$ than $\beta{s,D}$