How soon is "next couple of months"? Personal geopolitical situation

[marsrobertson]

The main reason for opening this issue - to showcase that I'm determined and I know my numbers.

Buying a house (5% downpayment)

I have opened https://www.gov.uk/lifetime-isa June 2019.

It's 25% government bonus towards the purchase of the first home, limited to £1000 of free money per year.

Usually, I'm not a big fan of the government but here the risk-reward ratio is reasonable. I don't expect UK government to go out of business in the next couple of months, not with the investment in nuclear submarines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_(UK_nuclear_programme)

I understand their incentive to support homeownership - less money spent on social housing and welfare benefits.

Citizenship situation

https://www.gov.uk/british-citizenship

I have all the paperwork in place:

• I already have Permanent Resident status
• Passed: https://www.gov.uk/life-in-the-uk-test
• Passed: https://www.gov.uk/english-language

The only reason why I haven't pulled the trigger is the cost: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fees-for-citizenship-applications/fees-for-citizenship-applications-and-the-right-of-abode-from-6-april-2018

Simple realisation that for now, noone is kicking me out of the UK and I'd rather preserve the capital for the downpayment for the house.

(and only then apply for a piece of paper)

Speculating how BREXIT with affect real-estate prices?

Deal or no-deal, any decision will remove uncertainty.

See the land registry data

Prices stagnated, market was frozen, now it's warming up again.

I'm ready to pull the trigger now if I find a suitable house, even without waiting till June to receive free money, even without waiting for the outcome of BREXIT negotiation.

Emotional stability

Owning your own house gives has a number of advantages:

• the sense of stability
• ability to refurbish and increase value
• install storage, lightning, stuff suited to my needs

Bitcoin halving

I need to admit that I’m over-exposed to one asset class - BTC, ETH, PNK diversifying in the crypto is still one asset class.

If I was to purchase a house right now I'd effectively be overexposed to one asset class too.

Surviving crypto winter and sell right now, just before the halving? Unsure, I'd rather participate in this bull run as well...

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Keeping my existing job is necessary to obtain a mortgage.

That's why suggesting part-time 10 hours per week contracting work focused on the escrow.

This will be my chance to deliver quality work and negotiate a full-time role.

[marsrobertson]

So far I paid £1 to activate the countdown.

End of tax year 2019/20 is 6 April 2020.

There are two scenarios:

1. I buy a house before that date, not using government bonus
2. I maximize the bonus, pay £3999 in this tax year. Then wait till 21 June for the bonus to mature. When buying the house pay in another £4000 to get £2000 free money in total.

Scenario 1: I apply for citizenship soon after I get the house. Scenario 2: I apply for citizenship while waiting for the bonus to mature

Why you haven't opened the Lifetime ISA earlier you may ask?

I had an uncertain housing situation and wasn't sure which address to use. Frequent change of address - reduced credit score. Thinking about getting a landline: https://credit-score-rating.blogspot.com/2019/07/obtaining-landline-to-achieve-better.html

(I kid you not)

[marsrobertson]

One of the mortgage brokers:

You bitcoin deposit will restrict the lenders available. I recommend you cash these in and leave in your bank account for 3 months before we apply for any mortgage. This way the money will be treated as normal savings.

Sold some coins around:

I'm bullish on crypto but given the fact I have enough for the downpayment, I do not want to take unnecessary risks.

https://blockfi.com/home-loans/ - would be overcomplicated:

Whether you’re looking to pay for an entire home, or just the down-payment, for a crypto real estate investment, this is a great option for people who need to access the value of their digital assets but don’t want to miss out on the potential future increase in value.

For people who sit on a large amount of crypto, leveraging your Bitcoin or Ether can be a great way to simultaneously diversify your investments with real estate, while taking advantage of the crypto’s value without having to sell.

https://blockfi.com/faq/

(that would be so complicated)

[marsrobertson]

And then the next thing you do, visiting Trading View to check something and seeing all the halving charts like this:

And the stock-to-flow price modeling: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

1. I'm not letting go of everything
2. I'm seeking income on the side (this job application)

There are other geopolitical factors too:

1. How long I'll sustain the existing corporate employment
2. BREXIT uncertainty removed
3. "No Burning Man until you buy a house" rule
4. http://www.crossrail.co.uk/news/articles/crossrail-project-update assuming I'll buy in Abbey Wood

(Crossrail is already priced in but expecting another increase when it actually opens)

[marsrobertson]

In order to have enough GBP in my bank account, I will be reducing my GBP spendings in favour of using crypto.

https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/trading-and-funding/other/coinbase-card-faq.html

Crypto Liquidation Fees | 2.49% of transaction

Of course, I don't want to pay extra 2.49%, that's why asking if they can simply use my GBP balance.

If you are going to use Coinbase, you may as well use my referral link: https://genesis.re/ref

[marsrobertson]

Resolving credit score issues.

[marsrobertson]

https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0?t=1082

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/bull-markets-by-length - longest bull market in the history ending due to the COVID-19?

Meanwhile gold, a safe asset in the times of uncertainty:

What about the real-estate? I'm prepared to buy it right now...

[marsrobertson]

If I was to rent the rooms, the size do not match the official requirement.

I will call the local government asking if introducing mezzanine level would be a sufficient trick?

There is absolutely no harm calling the government, this a good / decent / above the average country full of freedoms.

[marsrobertson]

The world has stopped.

Tax year is coming.

I'm about to fund the account with the remaining £3999 to maximize the 25% government bonus.

The home purchase plan is still in play.

At the same time, thinking about buying commercial real-estate as an income-generating asset but I'm actually missing a place I could call home so much...

[marsrobertson]

The home purchase plan is still in play.

Lost one job, another one is coming.

[marsrobertson]

I need to admit that buying an island is much more exciting project that house, especially that house prices are in decline.

"keeping powder dry"

House in London (family reasons) is still a possibility, but that's a possibility that will be always there.

Island is a unique timing, people are woke, it is happening right now ⚡️ ⚡️ ⚡️

[marsrobertson]

Made an offer to buy a house and the offer was accepted

I estimate I will have to sell around 30-40% of my total crypto wealth in order to afford the downpayment.

Will need to carefully check the tax situation, namely "Capital Gains Tax" and FREE ALLOWANCE.

I may also want to play various "end of tax year" games, especially that Lifetime ISA is part of the same game.

[marsrobertson]

DONE

Moved to the new 🏡

[marsrobertson]

WOW

Manifest with precision.

Thank you Trident, we are safe!

https://twitter.com/darren_cullen/status/1256280618171760640