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maxbiostat / R0_uncertainty

Some remarks on prior modelling for the basic reproductive number in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model

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Closed maxbiostat closed 5 years ago

maxbiostat commented 5 years ago

We need something to start with that

simulates some data under a known ground truth;
fits the model to the synthetic data and returns posteriors for the parameters
maybe also returns predictions (e.g. a predictive quantity of interest is the time of the epidemic peak)

Here's a start

maxbiostat commented 5 years ago

This notebook in python3 and this R script have a first stab.