Include half normal priors on the rates (SIR model)

maxbiostat / R0_uncertainty

Some remarks on prior modelling for the basic reproductive number in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model

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Include half normal priors on the rates (SIR model) #32

Open maxbiostat opened 4 years ago

maxbiostat commented 4 years ago

We have three choices for priors on the rates beta and gamma:

Gamma priors -> Gamma ratio distribution on R_0
Log-normal priors -> log-normal prior on R_0
Half-normal priors -> Weird distribution R_0

I have derived the density for the ratio of half normals. It ain't pretty, but it's closed-form. What would be nice here would be to implement the Boarding School example also with halfnormal priors as done here

maxbiostat commented 4 years ago

Distribution of R_0 under three different choices for the priors on beta and gamma.