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mhinsch / covol

Coevolution of SARS-CoV-2, policies and individual behaviour
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very basic viral traits #11

Open mhinsch opened 1 year ago

mhinsch commented 1 year ago

(look up epidemiological terminology)

thorsilver commented 1 year ago

This brief note in Nature helpfully boils down the burden of future variants into three main traits: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00722-z

I will poke David some more about his idea of the functional map of mutations.

My take so far is that intrinsic transmissibility, virulence (severity), and immune escape are most critical. Immune escape also comes in different flavours, seemingly, with some more/less able to bypass vaccine immunity vs immunity by previous infection. Both types of immunity also wane over time.

Intuitively, incubation period seems important too, though I'm not sure how impactful it is once the intrinsic transmissibility reaches a very high level. Omicron for example has a shorter incubation period than the original Wuhan strain, but was far more successful due to being ridiculously more transmissible.