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microCOVID / microCOVID

Estimating the COVID risk of ordinary activities
https://www.microCOVID.org
MIT License
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Incorrect case rates for Nordrhein-Westfalen #1398

Closed FinnStokes closed 2 years ago

FinnStokes commented 2 years ago

Describe the bug There seems to be something wrong with the case rate data for Nordrhein-Westfalen. The calculator reports 14,583 cases in the last week, wheras the RKI reports 250,148 cases over a similar time period (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Maerz_2022/2022-03-25-en.pdf page 3)

Link to microCOVID scenario https://www.microcovid.org/?distance=sixFt&duration=60&interaction=oneTime&personCount=5&riskProfile=average&scenarioName=60minShopping&setting=indoor&subLocation=Germany_Nordrhein_Westfalen&theirMask=basic&topLocation=Germany&voice=silent&yourMask=basic&yourVaccineDoses=3&yourVaccineType=pfizer

To Reproduce Steps to reproduce the behavior:

  1. Select "Germany" for "Country or US state"
  2. Select "Nordrhein-Westfalen" for "Region"
  3. Check the reported prevalence, reported cases or risk profile
  4. Compare to Germany as a whole or the RKI data and see an order of magnitude discrepancy

Is this a regression? Yes this is a regression. Last week the numbers from microcovid and RKI were much more similar, and the risk profile for NRW was similar to the rest of Germany (at the moment, it is about 10 times smaller).

Additional context / screenshots Case numbers seem to be slowly dropping, but the reported incidence rate is still above 1%, but microCOVID has it at 0.08% for NRW, (whereas Germany as a whole seems correct at 0.93%).

FinnStokes commented 2 years ago

This issue seems to have been resolved with a recent update to the prevalence data.