miguelgfierro
commented
6 years ago Job Displacement past https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment
The best-known early example is the Luddite movement of the early
19th century, in which a group of English textile artisans protested the automation
of textile production by seeking to destroy some of the machines.
I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped
out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed
substitute for labor—as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also
complements labor, raises output in ways that lead to higher demand for labor, and
interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Indeed, a key observation of the paper
is that journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of
machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities
between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and
augment demand for labor.
source: https://economics.mit.edu/files/11563
Since the dawn of the industrial age, a recurrent fear has been that technological change will spawn mass unemployment. Neoclassical economists predicted that this would not happen, because people would find other jobs, albeit possibly after a long period of painful adjustment. By and large, that prediction has proven to be correct source: https://futurism.com/what-the-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-the-future-of-automation-and-work/
About a third of new jobs created in the United States over the past 25 years didn’t exist (or just barely existed) at the beginning of that period, and predicting what jobs might be created in the next 25 years is just guessing source: https://qz.com/904285/the-optimists-guide-to-the-robot-apocalypse/
We estimate that the introduction of the personal computer, for instance, has enabled the creation of 15.8 million net new jobs in the United States since 1980, even after accounting for jobs displaced source: https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/five-lessons-from-history-on-ai-automation-and-employment
Across advanced economies, the length of the average workweek has fallen by nearly 50 percent since the early 1900s, reflecting shorter working hours, more paid days off for personal time and vacations, and the recent rise of part-time work. This growth in leisure has led to the creation of new industries, from golf to video games to home improvement. source: https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/five-lessons-from-history-on-ai-automation-and-employment For many thousands of years before it, economic growth was practically negligible, generally tracking with population growth: Farmers grew a bit more food and blacksmiths made a few more tools, but people from the early agrarian societies of Mesopotamia, Egypt, China and India would have recognized the world of 17th-century Europe. But when steam power and industrial machinery came along in the 18th century, economic activity took off. The growth that happened in just a couple hundred years was on a vastly different scale than anything that had happened before. We may be at a similar tipping point now, referred to by some as the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” where all that has happened in the past may appear minor compared to the productivity and profitability potential of the future. source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/what-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-future-of-automation-work-117090400137_1.html
Job displacement future https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/11/robots-jobs-employees-artificial-intelligence
https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/the-impact-of-automation-on-jobs.html https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/assets/international-impact-of-automation-feb-2018.pdf https://futurism.com/mckinsey-finds-automation-eradicate-third-americas-workforce-2030/
https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/14/a-hippocratic-oath-for-artificial-intelligence-practitioners/ https://www.akuaroworld.com/robots-vs-humanity-5-pressing-ethical-issues-in-artificial-intelligence/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/10/top-10-ethical-issues-in-artificial-intelligence/