Expected Price between 0 and 999 all week

mikebryant / ac-nh-turnip-prices

Price calculator/predictor for Turnip prices

https://turnipprophet.io

Apache License 2.0

1.45k stars 244 forks source link

Expected Price between 0 and 999 all week #228

Open rtclauss opened 4 years ago

rtclauss commented 4 years ago

I've entered in my purchase prices for the week so far and when I entered Tuesday PM's entry of 98 bells/turnip all predictions have gone out the window:

Prediction for this week

jigokupudding commented 4 years ago

I too have this same problem. This was my first time buying turnips and I have never done any time-traveling in this game because I do not want to. So how do I know if I have reached my peak?

alisonshrub commented 4 years ago

I have the same problem, this is not the first time buying turnips.

theRTC204 commented 4 years ago

@rtclauss the numbers you're reporting are impossible by the games math.

I have a few questions

Have you done any time traveling this week?
Are you 100% certain all of these values were from the same island?

If you remove the 74 from Monday AM, the remaining numbers produce a possible Fluctuating prediction, otherwise if you remove the 98 from Tuesday PM, the remaining numbers show a possible Small Spike prediction.. however there is no pattern in the game that could match up with all of those numbers exactly as you've input them.

theRTC204 commented 4 years ago

@jigokupudding and @alisonshrub can you both please submit new issues and provide either the numbers you have entered, or ideally a permalink to your exact entries (which you can get from within the app).

rtclauss commented 4 years ago

@theRTC204:

I've never done time traveling
All those values are from my island. I have only bought turnips on my island.

Wednesday morning's turnip price on my island was 65.

theRTC204 commented 4 years ago

I will try to find some time this evening to run the calculations again manually and see if there's any way those numbers can line up... for now, if you remove your Monday PM price, there's a possible matched prediction of Fluctuating that lines up with the remaining values including your Wednesday AM price of 65.

https://turnipprophet.io?prices=92.74..115.98.65

nitefang commented 4 years ago

Will time travelling affect the predictions in a way that makes the calculator unable to work? I had a friend time travel on Sunday to give people more time to buy turnips but that was the only day. However her current predictions have gone wrong after submitting her turnip prices for Wednesday PM.

Here is the link https://turnipprophet.io/?prices=95.46.43.112.134.191.199&pattern=0

theRTC204 commented 4 years ago

Will time travelling affect the predictions in a way that makes the calculator unable to work? I had a friend time travel on Sunday to give people more time to buy turnips but that was the only day. However her current predictions have gone wrong after submitting her turnip prices for Wednesday PM.

When you time travel it causes the algorithm to be run again, so yes it does effect it.

Both Wednesday prices are impossible given the algorithm - the peak of a Small Spike is a rate of 2.0, making 190 the peak for a buy price of 95.

The fact they they got a 191 followed by a 199 confirms the buy price they paid is not what the week's prices are based on, so we can deduce that time travel they did caused a recalculation for this week.

If you remove the buy price, you can still get a rough estimate; however I can tell you that the 199 they got is their peak for the week.

https://turnipprophet.io?prices=.46.43.112.134.191.199......&pattern=0

nitefang commented 4 years ago

Thank you very much for the answer.

theRTC204 commented 4 years ago

@nitefang you're welcome!

(I'll be marking these messages as off-topic to refocus this issue on the original report.)