Exponential smoothing refers to the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to “smooth” a time series.
Holt Winters (aka triple exponential smoothing) is an old school work-horse for time series dating back to the 1950s. Its simple but it works Its a sensible place to start. There are 3 components:
value,
trend, and
seasonality
The model predicts a current or future value by computing the combined effects of these three influences.
Exponential smoothing refers to the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to “smooth” a time series.
Holt Winters (aka triple exponential smoothing) is an old school work-horse for time series dating back to the 1950s. Its simple but it works Its a sensible place to start. There are 3 components:
The model predicts a current or future value by computing the combined effects of these three influences.