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mm0123 / AugurMM

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[Design] HLD #1

Open ThomasAsmar opened 4 years ago

ThomasAsmar commented 4 years ago

Define exactly what a Phase One Version looks like. We should all get on the same page for what exactly we want to have done by Augur 2.0 release date. We can work backwards from that date and the project requirements we come up with.

objones commented 4 years ago

Phase One deliverable in my opinion is a quotation system that gets odds+size information from sports betting site and turns them into a single quote (aka bid ask spread). The system can then send this to a "publishing" process/module. Publishing will be phase 2 and we will need to know more about the augur system I believe in order to complete the publishing phase.

I think in terms of project size this should take about 1-2 week worth of full time solo concentrated dev time, so maybe we should target 1-2 months for delivery since we all dont have this project as a #1 priority item (ie, everyone has full time day job).

joeykrug commented 4 years ago

Part 1:

I think we need something that uses AsianOdds and gets us amount we can bet in dollar terms at what odds for all the markets, and converts those odds into implied probabilities, and does dollar amount / price to get the amount of shares that would be. This way we have numbers in the format augur supports. Then we can construct orderbooks in our db for AsianOdds with bids and asks for each outcome. The ask would be the obvious numbers for what we could bet on. The bid would be effectively what we could short that outcome for, so it’d be the sum of the asks on the other outcomes for that event/market.

The next step would be to write a function which allows us to place bets on these markets on AsianOdds.

Part 2:

We need to build a trading bot that can trade on augur markets given some risk parameters like a max order size, max risk in a given market (buying then selling the same outcome at same odds would be 0 risk, for example, but if we bought it and hadnt sold it, we’d have risk), etc. This bot would take a price feed of whatever the latest odds are from some third party like Asian Odds (Part 1) and market make around that by adding a spread and continuously updating the orders (by letting them expire and then creating new ones) with new pricing every n seconds using the latest odds

Part 3:

Connect the two. We need the bot in part 2 to hedge by taking the opposite bet immediately for the same amount of shares on Asian Odds. And we need the bots to know which augur market outcomes map to which teams in which Asian odds markets.