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mrc-ide / helios

Simulating far UVC for pathogen control
https://mrc-ide.github.io/helios/
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explicitly capturing overdispersion in the offspring distribution #86

Open cwhittaker1000 opened 5 months ago

cwhittaker1000 commented 5 months ago

Build in model functionality to produce overdispersion in the offspring distribution.

This will arise I think from two distinct sources (documented in separate issues). Variation in individual-level infectiousness (https://github.com/mrc-ide/helios/issues/87) and variation in setting-specific transmissibility/riskiness (https://github.com/mrc-ide/helios/issues/88) - both important and will require some thinking through.

Once they're in, I think we'll need to track the number of people each infected individual infects so that we can reconstruct the offspring distribution at the end of each run and compare to empirical distributions (think there are a few for COVID-19 we could draw on).

cwhittaker1000 commented 4 months ago

Changing priority to reflect changes in our understanding of what to focus on