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Consider usefulness of county-level HCV estimates (that were created) and county-level HBV estimates (that weren't yet created) #111

Closed simonleandergrimm closed 1 year ago

simonleandergrimm commented 1 year ago

Ditto. Jeff advised Asher not to create HBV estimates on the county level while I created said estimates for HCV. According to Asher, the reasoning here was that the county-level estimates might be too noisy, given the small size of counties and the possible reporting heterogeneity between counties.

simonleandergrimm commented 1 year ago

I looked into this a bit, and it seems like the county-level HCV estimates are mostly within 1 order of magnitude +/- of the state-level estimate, so not too noisy.

**Chronic prevalence"
US: 
  1000.00 per 100k (United States; 2016)
Ohio:
   110.60 per 100k (Ohio, United States; 2020)
   105.40 per 100k (Ohio, United States; 2021)
Counties:
   379.10 per 100k (Lawrence, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   367.20 per 100k (Lawrence, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   134.70 per 100k (Lucas, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   122.10 per 100k (Lucas, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   120.90 per 100k (Trumbull, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   107.20 per 100k (Trumbull, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   105.90 per 100k (Montgomery, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   104.50 per 100k (Sandusky, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   102.80 per 100k (Sandusky, Ohio, United States; 2021)
    99.70 per 100k (Summit, Ohio, United States; 2020)
    98.00 per 100k (Montgomery, Ohio, United States; 2021)
    97.20 per 100k (Summit, Ohio, United States; 2021)
    86.80 per 100k (Franklin, Ohio, United States; 2021)
    74.30 per 100k (Franklin, Ohio, United States; 2020)
    74.10 per 100k (Greene, Ohio, United States; 2020)
    65.10 per 100k (Licking, Ohio, United States; 2021)
    59.50 per 100k (Licking, Ohio, United States; 2020)
    49.40 per 100k (Greene, Ohio, United States; 2021)

 **Acute incidence**  
 US:
   1.50 per 100k/y (United States; 2020)
 Ohio:
   27.80 per 100k/y (Ohio, United States; 2020)
   18.07 per 100k/y (Ohio, United States; 2021)
 Counties:
  211.28 per 100k/y (Lawrence, Ohio, United States; 2020)
  84.79 per 100k/y (Trumbull, Ohio, United States; 2020)  
  47.26 per 100k/y (Licking, Ohio, United States; 2020)
  30.58 per 100k/y (Licking, Ohio, United States; 2021)
  23.63 per 100k/y (Sandusky, Ohio, United States; 2020)
  23.63 per 100k/y (Lawrence, Ohio, United States; 2021)
  20.85 per 100k/y (Franklin, Ohio, United States; 2021)
  15.29 per 100k/y (Summit, Ohio, United States; 2020)
  13.90 per 100k/y (Trumbull, Ohio, United States; 2021)
  11.12 per 100k/y (Franklin, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   9.73 per 100k/y (Summit, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   9.73 per 100k/y (Lucas, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   8.34 per 100k/y (Montgomery, Ohio, United States; 2020)
   8.34 per 100k/y (Greene, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   5.56 per 100k/y (Montgomery, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   2.78 per 100k/y (Lucas, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   0.00 per 100k/y (Sandusky, Ohio, United States; 2021)
   0.00 per 100k/y (Greene, Ohio, United States; 2020)

Still, we don't actually have any reads for Hep B or Hep C. Given that county-level data for Hep B also looks like it is within 1 OOM +/- of the state-level estimate, it's not worth it to add the county-level estimates to hbv.py.