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ncase / covid-19

COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal
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Asymptomatic transmission #52

Open philip-mach opened 4 years ago

philip-mach commented 4 years ago

Checking through your site and it looks great; I will check through in more detail later – just one issue I picked up.

I completely agree with the need to remove confusion between asymptomatic and presymptomatic. However your S Korean study does not demonstrate that asymptomatic transmission is not an effect because the asymptomatic positive cases were informed and self-isolated.

Also the evidence for the asymptomatic fraction is highly variable – I have seen numbers anywhere from under 10% as in your reference to 50% or more. The problem in general with studying asymptomatic spread is that asymptomatic cases are most likely to be caught in a context where they will be isolated or quarantined. I outline in this paper why this is a subject worth studying.

chonghorizons commented 4 years ago

I have asymptomatic transmission modeled on leakylockdown.com

Also open sourced.